Iraq, Syria: Additional Turkish airstrikes likely in northern regions through January /update 3

Turkiye's air campaign in Syria and Iraq will probably persist through January. Airstrikes in northern Iraq have targeted structures affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in the Metine, Qandil, Hakurk, and Gara regions. In northern Syria, airstrikes have targeted areas under the control of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), including but not limited to Al-Hasakah, Tal Rifat, Jazeera, and Derik regions. The airstrikes have killed dozens of SDF and PKK fighters and civilians since October 2023 in retaliation against a suicide bombing at the Ministry of Interior building in Ankara that injured two police officers; the PKK claimed responsibility for the attack.

Retaliatory Strikes
Kurdish forces in Syria could launch retaliatory mortar and rocket artillery strikes against border towns in Turkiye, especially those where Turkish troops are staging, as the air offensive progresses. However, any such attacks will likely be sporadic rather than sustained and probably largely restricted to the immediate border area. Cross-border artillery fire is unlikely to pose a significant threat to southeastern population centers at greater distances from Syria, such as Gaziantep, Diyarbakir, and Sanliurfa.

Turkish military operations could also motivate Kurdish militant groups within Turkiye, mainly the PKK and its offshoot, the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK), to conduct bombings and other terror attacks in retaliation. The PKK and TAK's ability to operate in Turkiye has significantly degraded due to an ongoing large-scale anti-terror operation in the Kurdish southeast and the generally heightened presence of government military units supporting operations in Syria. Although the Oct. 1 suicide bombing may suggest an increased ability to launch attacks. Turkish provinces with the highest potential for PKK/TAK activity include Bingol, Diyarbakir, Hakkari, Sanliurfa, Siirt, Sirnak, and Tunceli.

Civil Unrest
Political, student, and civil society groups opposed to Erdogan's administration could stage anti-war protests in various cities across Turkiye. Although such demonstrations will most likely occur in the country's predominantly Kurdish southeast, similar rallies cannot be ruled out in major western cities, such as Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir.

Similarly, large demonstrations remain possible in Iraq and Syria in condemnation of Turkiye's military operations in those countries. Any protests that may materialize will probably draw large crowds. Authorities will almost certainly deploy to provide security and to ensure demonstrations do not devolve into violence. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely near all protest sites. Likely gathering sites include public squares, universities, major thoroughfares, and government buildings.

Transport and Supply Chain Disruptions
Road closures associated with possible troop movements or other provisional security restrictions imposed as part of the air campaign could prompt localized transport and supply chain disruptions over the coming weeks. Authorities may declare special security zones - areas to which access is restricted or completely denied - with little-to-no warning, based on operational necessity. Officials could also impose a security zone on the Turkish side of the border with Syria, likely out of an abundance of caution. Transport in Turkiye's southeast may also be complicated by other special security zones related to domestic anti-terror operations that are in force in parts of Bingol, Hakkari, Tunceli, and Sirnak provinces. Authorities typically declare such restricted areas for two weeks at a time, but there is no legal limit on the number of extensions to these restrictions.