08 Jan 2024 | 12:58 PM UTC
Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Violence across the shared border region likely through late January /update 9
Clashes likely to continue across the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border through at least late January.
Cross-border violence along Israel's northern border with Lebanon and Syria will likely persist through late January. Tensions have become heightened since the alleged Israeli targeted killing of senior Hamas leader, Saleh Al-Arouri, in Beirut on Jan. 2. Lebanese Hizballah (LH) launched a barrage of rockets targeting Israel on Jan. 6 in direct retaliation for the killing of Al-Aouri. The attacks on Jan. 6 reportedly caused significant material damage to an Israeli base in Mount Meron. The Israeli government responded to the rocket barrage by targeting Wissam al-Tawil, who served as the deputy commander of a unit within the LH's elite al-Hajj Radwan Force, in a drone strike in the Lebanese village of Majdal Selm, Jan. 8.
There have been regular reports of violence since Hamas launched attacks against military and civilian targets in southern Israel on Oct. 7. LH and Palestinian militants continue to launch projectiles targeting northern Israeli areas. Israeli retaliatory fire has impacted sites across southern Lebanon. Cross-border fire and Israeli airstrikes continue to target military sites deep inside Syria. Additional Israeli military forces have deployed to the northern border.
Syria-Israel
Cross-border fire involving Israeli military and Syrian military forces is likely to occur periodically in the Golan Heights region. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will also almost certainly continue a campaign of targeting sites deeper within Syria. The IDF regularly targets Damascus International Airport (DAM) and Aleppo International Airport (ALP), causing serious material damage to the landing strips.
Lebanon-Israel
Cross-border fire involving Israeli military forces and Lebanon-based militants, including Iran-backed LH and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), will likely persist. Dozens of people have been killed and injured near the shared border in both countries since the outbreak of hostilities Oct. 7.
On Oct. 16, Israeli officials began evacuating residents who live within 2 km (1.2 miles) of the shared border with Lebanon in northern Israel. The impacted communities include Reger, Dishon, Kfar Yuval, Margaliot, Metula, Avivim, Dobb, Ma'ayan Baruch, Baram, Manara, Yiftah, Malkiah, Meshgav Am, Yaraon, Dafna, Arab al Aramsha, Shlomi, Natua, Ya'ara, Shtula, Matat, Zerait, Shumera, Batzat, Adamit, Rosh Hankara, Kfar Giladi, and Hanita.
On Oct. 15, Israeli officials declared the shared border area with Lebanon a 'closed military zone.' Civilians cannot enter an area within 4 km (2.5 miles) of the shared border with Lebanon.
Disruptions
Officials could announce further movement restrictions or evacuations in the Israel, Syria, or Lebanon border region over the coming weeks. The movement of military personnel and checkpoints will also likely disrupt travel along primary and secondary road routes. Fighting could impact utilities, including power and water supply.
Consider avoiding nonessential travel near the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border until the situation stabilizes. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm the status of transport services before departure. Review and update contingency plans.
Tensions along Israel's northern borders with Lebanon and Syria have increased markedly since Oct. 7. The potential for escalation is high; a projectile launched from Syria or Lebanon that causes multiple casualties in Israel will almost certainly bring about an escalation. While Israel has significantly increased security measures along its borders with Syria and Lebanon, militants will likely attempt to infiltrate its territory to carry out armed attacks. Should escalation occur, Israeli military strikes could expand further into Lebanon against critical infrastructure and militant targets, including in the Beirut area. Israeli strikes could also escalate against Syrian military and infrastructure targets, including but not limited to military bases and airports.
