Madagascar: Tropical Cyclone Alvaro tracking eastward over southern Madagascar early Jan. 2 /update 3

Tropical Storm Alvaro is tracking eastward over southern Madagascar early Jan. 2 following landfall in Morombe District the evening of Jan. 1. As of 06:00, the system was around 389 km (242 miles) southwest of Antananarivo. Forecast models indicate that Alvaro will weaken as it continues eastward across southern Madagascar through Jan. 2 before exiting into the Indian Ocean early Jan. 3. The storm is forecast to re-intensify into a moderate tropical storm early Jan. 3, and weaken again into a tropical depression early Jan. 5 as it tracks in a southeasterly direction away from Madagascar, passing well southwest of Reunion Jan. 4.

Meteo Madagascar is maintaining red rainfall alerts for the districts of Morondava, Mahabo, Manja, Morombe, Beroroha, Ankazoabo, Sakaraha, and Toliara I-II, red strong wind alerts for southwestern Madagascar, and red strong swell warnings for southwestern and western Madagascar. Yellow heavy rainfall, strong swell, and strong wind alerts are in place for the rest of southeastern Madagascar.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.