Madagascar: Tropical Storm Alvaro tracking eastward over Mozambique Channel Jan. 1 /update 2

Tropical Storm Alvaro is tracking eastward over the Mozambique Channel toward Madagascar as of the afternoon of Jan. 1. As of 15:00, the system is around 70 km (44 miles) northwest of Morombe. Alvaro is forecast to maintain its intensity and make landfall over the Morombe District, Atsimo Andrefana region, between 18:00-21:00 Jan. 1. Gusts of 90-130 kph (55-80 mph) are likely during landfall. The storm will weaken slightly after landfall as it passes east-southeastward across south-central Madagascar through at least Jan. 3, and then weaken further into a tropical depression as it enters the Indian Ocean. The storm is forecast to re-intensify into a tropical storm Jan. 4, and weaken again into a tropical depression Jan. 5 as it continues to track in a southeasterly direction. Meteo Madagascar issued a red alert for the districts of Morondova, Manja, Morombe, and Toliara, and a yellow alert for the districts of Mahabo, Beroroha, Ankazoabo, and Sakaraha, ahead of the storm's arrival. Officials have also warned mariners between Maintirano and Toliara to avoid going out to sea.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.