Nigeria: Protests possible nationwide through at least mid-February amid elevated political tensions

Protests are possible nationwide through at least late February amid election challenges and by-elections scheduled across nine states on Feb. 3. The voting process will only take place in select areas of the states to elect state and national representatives. Some results of the 2023 general election, during which voters elected governors and representatives from the National Assembly and State of Houses of Assembly, are currently challenged across various states. The opposition had contested the election of President Bola Tinubu, but the Supreme Court upheld his victory.

Disruptive protests broke out in Lafia, Nasarawa State, on Jan. 19 in response to a controversial Supreme Court ruling upholding the re-election of the state governor. In Kano State, officials imposed a 24-hour curfew in late September 2023 amid elevated tensions after an election tribunal nullified the governorship victory of the opposition. Other states may take similar measures in the event of violence during election appeals.

Heightened security is likely near all polling stations on Feb. 3 and gatherings denouncing a court's decision and during state tribunals on ruling days, generally held in state capitals. Other possible gathering locations include electoral commission buildings. Demonstrators may march along or block roadways, prompting localized transport disruptions. Clashes between police and activists are possible. Clashes and other forms of violence may also occur involving rival political groups.