South Africa: Further severe weather forecast over flood-affected areas of KwaZulu-Natal Jan. 17 /update 1

Further heavy rainfall is forecast across KwaZulu-Natal Jan. 17, including over areas still recovering from severe flooding in recent days. The South African Weather Service has issued level 5 (out of 10) orange disruptive rain warnings across coastal and northern parts of the province and yellow level 4 warnings across the rest of KwaZulu-Natal Jan. 17. Heavy downpours could trigger additional flooding in low-lying areas, especially in areas where river levels are already high and the ground is saturated following previous heavy rainfall.

Response operations are ongoing in parts of the province following heavy rain and associated flooding Jan. 13-14. Affected areas include parts of Durban and the wider eThekwini Metropolitan Municipality, as well as parts of Kwadukuza and Ndwedwe municipalities. Authorities have reported at least 13 weather-related fatalities and at least six others injured. Around 250 homes have been damaged and several roads and bridges have been made impassable by floodwaters in the affected areas. Ground transport services in the area have been impacted by the severe weather and further disruptions to transport, business, and utilities are likely over the coming hours and days. Additional downpours will likely hamper ongoing recovery efforts, as well as possibly causing further damage and casualties across parts of the province.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil. Additional power outages are possible in areas impacted by the severe weather.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. The disruptive weather may cause additional delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas subject to heavy rainfall and track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.