05 Jan 2024 | 03:10 AM UTC
Taiwan: General election to occur islandwide Jan. 13
General election to occur across Taiwan Jan. 13. Tight security, localized transport disruptions certain; isolated scuffles possible.
Taiwan is set to hold its general elections Jan. 13. Over 19.5 million voters will head to the polls between 08:00 and 16:00 to elect the island's 16th president and vice president, as well as 113 members of the Legislative Yuan. The executive will take office for a four-year term from May 20, while lawmakers will be sworn in on Feb. 1. While election-related violence is unlikely, increased security deployment around political gatherings and polling stations is likely throughout Taiwan in the run-up to, during, and immediately after the vote.
Major political parties, including the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), largest opposition Kuomintang (KMT), and the Taiwan People's Party (TPP) will hold campaign activity in the coming days. The DPP plans to hold a rally at Ketagalan Boulevard, Taipei, Jan. 9-11, while a TPP rally will occur at the same location Jan. 12; opposition KMT will gather in Banqiao District, New Taipei, Jan. 12. The timings are unclear, although campaign events are allowed 07:00-22:00 daily. Possible event venues include stadiums, political party offices, and public grounds. Organizers expect tens of thousands of participants, especially during the final campaign weekend Jan. 6-7. Large gatherings may also occur in other urban centers, such as Kaohsiung, Taichung, and Tainan.
High participation and tight security are likely at rallies of presidential candidates, as well as those involving incumbent President Tsai Ing-Wen in support of DPP candidates. Most campaign events will likely pass peacefully, though clashes between rival political groups cannot be ruled out.
Exercise caution near all political gatherings. Prepare for increased security measures such as road diversions around political party offices, rallies, and polling stations through at least Jan. 13; allow additional travel time to reach destinations. If unruly gathering forms, immediately leave the area and seek shelter at a safe, nongovernmental building. Confirm all business appointments and transport reservations on Jan. 13. Monitor local media for election-related event announcements.
Against the backdrop of increasing tensions between China and the US, the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is widely considered to be the island's most consequential election in decades. While voters will also be electing members of the Legislative Yuan, the spotlight is largely on the outcome of the presidential election, given the widely acknowledged perception that Taiwan's incoming president would play a key role in steering the island's foreign policy in relation to major powers. Based on various polls conducted Jan. 1, two days before the blackout on opinion polling begins, DPP's Lai Ching-te maintains a lead of 3 to 11 percentage points ahead of KMT candidate Hou Yu-ih, while TPP's Ko Wen-je remains in third place.
As with previous elections, issues surrounding cross-strait relations, defense and nuclear policies, as well as a stagnating domestic economy, are expected to play crucial roles. While all three candidates have refrained from explicitly espousing notions of unification with China, they differ in terms of their cross-strait policy proposals. If elected, Lai is likely to continue incumbent President Tsai’s stance that Taiwan should focus on increasing its autonomy and security through closer relations with the US and other like-minded democracies, as well as independently building up its military capabilities, including its submarine assets. Meanwhile, Hou is widely seen as a pro-Beijing candidate who has voiced support for closer economic relations with mainland China, including his intent to restart talks for the Cross-Strait Service Trade Agreement with China. Ko, a relative newcomer to national politics, has positioned himself as a centrist, with an emphasis on pragmatism. Accordingly, a Ko presidency would likely involve more dialogue and formal engagement with China than seen under the current DPP administration.
