26 Jan 2024 | 01:13 PM UTC
Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of late-January /update 247
Combat is ongoing in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine as of late-January; no frontline changes reported. Ongoing positional combat.
Ukrainian and Russian forces remain engaged in positional combat operations in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine; however, land offensive operations appear to have reduced throughout the line of contact as of late January. Russian troops continue to assault areas of Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, although no confirmed advance was reported on either side in the previous weeks. Occasional intense combat occurs in parts of Donetsk region. Long-range strikes on ammunition deports, logistical hubs, and bordering regions between Russia and Ukraine are ongoing and represent the main strategic development as of late January. Ukrainian cities continue to be targeted by intense occasional Russian airstrikes, hitting Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Poltava, and Kharkiv. Strikes of minor intensity are ongoing in most frontline and bordering regions.
Ukrainian forces continue the preparation of in-depth defensive positions along most of the line of contact, ending all offensive actions. Occasional counterattacks following Russian assaults might occur; however, it is unlikely that Kyiv will engage in major offensive operations in the short term. Russian troops carry out aggressive patrolling and occasional assaults on Ukrainian lines in Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, particularly around Kupyansk, Siversk, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka. However, most assaults do not bring any change to the frontline. Minor engagements continue in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russia has seemingly failed to capitalize on the momentum it gained in early January as Kyiv’s troops reinforce their defensive positions.
Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s military logistical hubs in southern Ukraine are ongoing; occasional long-range strikes damaged Russian naval assets on the Black Sea, prompting Moscow to keep its Black Sea Fleet in port. Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities, likely supported by Western equipment and intelligence, caused damage to Russian cities in Belgorod, Bryansk, and Voronezh Oblasts, as well as the area of Saint Petersburg. Furthermore, Ukrainian long-range weapons intercepted and damaged Russian military aircraft flying over the Sea of Azov and Russian territory bordering Ukraine.
Russian airstrikes on Ukraine’s northern, central, and western regions continue. Strikes increase in intensity, although frequency remains low. Major airstrikes involving the combined use of missiles and loitering munitions reportedly occurred on Dec. 29-30, Jan. 2, and Jan. 23 recording civilian casualties. Ukrainian air defense systems continue to report a high rate of interception. Nonetheless, falling missile debris continues to risk causing damage and casualties.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.
Kyiv's forces have adopted an increasingly defensive stance in recent weeks following months of high-tempo operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions and will likely commit to an active defense strategy through early 2024. Intelligence suggests that Ukrainian forces deployed in counteroffensive operations throughout summer 2023 suffered manpower and equipment losses. These likely needed replacing, and frontline forces required rotations to ensure rest and recuperation and to maintain high morale. However, Kyiv appears to increasingly rely on long-range strategic strikes and the regular erosion of Russia's capabilities in and around Ukraine, targeting logistical nodes, command posts, and ammunition depots.
Moscow’s forces maintain offensive activities in few, well-established battlefields along the line of contact and could increase offensive activities in these areas as wintry conditions set in. Russia may seek to capitalize on the relative Ukrainian pause in offensive operations to reposition forces for coming offensives and strengthen its ongoing offensive operations. Russia's forces will likely resume major offensive operations once winter weather has frozen now-sodden ground, making it suitable for heavy equipment maneuvers.
Russian forces will likely continue intense airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI), military, and civilian objectives through early 2024. Airstrikes are likely less costly for Russia to maintain. Ukraine has rebuilt damaged infrastructure targeted through winter 2022-2023 relatively swiftly; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI, stretching Kyiv's capacity, rather than launching costly attacks whose effects would be swiftly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. Nonetheless, increasing power shortages are likely through the winter of 2023-2024.
