India: Unionized farmers' protests likely to persist nationwide through at least mid-March /update 3

Unionized farmers affiliated with several groups will likely continue to stage their ongoing series of protest activities across India through at least mid-March. The purpose of the demonstrations is to demand various concessions related to the country's agricultural policies and denounce alleged violence against activists during previous protests. In recent days, protest actions, including marches, general strikes, and road blockades, have occurred in several locations; the most significant participation remains concentrated in rural areas of northern Indian states, such as Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh, and in locations that border the National Capital Region (NCR). As of Feb. 23, demonstration organizers had announced the following details regarding related protest activity:

• Feb. 26: Activists will hold vehicular marches using tractors along national highways across India.

Additional protest activities of varying types, including road blockades and general strikes, will likely occur over the coming weeks. Well-attended gatherings will probably continue to draw tens of thousands of participants. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, public squares, sports fields, and thoroughfares. Authorities will likely deploy a heightened security presence and impose traffic restrictions at or near announced protest venues. Officials have previously used mass arrests, baton charges, tear gas, gathering bans, and mobile internet curbs to prevent or disperse disruptive rallies. Clashes between police and activists are possible, especially if protesters attempt to storm government or political offices or bypass police barricades. Localized business and transport disruptions are probable near well-attended gatherings. Authorities may impose restrictions on public movement, gatherings, and telecommunications services in any areas where significant violence occurs.