India: Unionized farmers to hold marches in New Delhi amid nationwide protests planned through at least mid-February /update 1

Unionized farmers affiliated with several groups, including the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM, or United Farmers' Front), are certain to continue their ongoing series of sporadic nationwide strikes and related protest campaigns through at least mid-February. The purpose of the action is to demand various concessions related to agricultural policies. In recent days, intermittent protest activity, including marches, has occurred in several locations, including parts of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh states. The highest support remains concentrated in rural areas of northern Indian states, with no notable violence or operational disruptions. As of Feb. 7, organizers have announced the following details concerning their planned actions:

• Feb. 7-8: Thousands of farmers will gather in Greater Noida and Noida cities from Feb. 7 and hold a tractor rally towards Parliament House in New Delhi for a protest Feb. 8; organizers announced plans to surround Parliament House. Police are imposing bans on unauthorized public gatherings of over four people under Section 144 in parts of Greater Noida and Noida Feb. 7-8.

• Feb. 10: Activists will rally at Freedom Park in Bengaluru; organizers expect thousands of participants.

• Feb. 13: At least 200 farmer unions will hold tractor rallies from various regions of India towards Jantar Mantar, New Delhi. The action could draw hundreds of thousands of participants, mainly from northern Indian states. Organizers have announced intent to resist police barricades that will prevent them from reaching New Delhi. Disruptions and clashes are most likely at entry points to New Delhi from Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh.

• Feb. 16: Activists will observe a nationwide general strike campaign, including a shutdown strike in rural areas (Gramin bandh), and hold related protests. Organizers have invited like-minded groups, including business operators, to participate in the planned action. The shutdown strike will likely cause associated business and transport disruptions. Participation will vary by locale, with the largest turnout likely in northwestern India.

Additional demonstrations of varying types, including shutdown strikes and marches, will likely occur nationwide over the coming weeks. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, public squares, sports fields, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings have previously drawn tens of thousands of participants. Authorities will almost certainly monitor any such gatherings that materialize and may move to disperse overly disruptive crowds. Officials may use force, including baton charges and tear gas. Clashes between police and activists are possible, especially if protesters attempt to storm government or political offices or bypass police barricades. Localized business and transport disruptions are probable.