25 Feb 2024 | 10:41 PM UTC
Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Violence across the shared border region likely through late March /update 12
Clashes likely to continue across the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border through at least late March.
Cross-border violence along Israel's northern border with Lebanon and Syria will likely persist through late March. The Lebanese Hizballah (LH) and Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continue to exchange fire almost on a daily basis. Israeli authorities have stated that the current situation cannot continue along the border with Lebanon and that they will stabilize the region either through mediation or force.
Despite the IDF's retaliatory strikes, LH and Palestinian militants continue to launch projectiles targeting northern Israeli areas. Israeli retaliatory fire has impacted sites across southern Lebanon. Cross-border fire and Israeli airstrikes continue to target military sites deep inside Syria. Additional Israeli military forces have deployed to the northern border.
Targeted Strikes
The Israeli government has increased the number of its targeted drone and missile strikes against Hamas and Hizballah political and military leaders. An Israeli drone strike on Feb. 9 targeted Abbas Al-Debes, a senior Hizballah leader, in Nabatieh, Lebanon, located roughly 20 km (12 miles) from the border. Another strike on Feb. 10 targeted a vehicle carrying a high-ranking Hamas figure in Jadra, Lebanon, 60 km (37 miles) north of the border, killing at least two individuals. Separately, an Israeli airstrike in Hula, Lebanon, near the border, killed at least one person and injured six others.
These actions follow an anti-tank missile attack by Hizballah on Feb. 8 in Kiryat Shmona, Israel, which wounded one soldier seriously and two others lightly, and a rocket attack on Feb. 14 in Safed, killing one IDF soldier and wounding eight others. The Israeli government justifies these strikes as targeting key Hamas and Hizballah leadership while vowing further action in response to projectile attacks on the country.
Syria-Israel
Cross-border fire involving Israeli military and Syrian military forces is likely to occur periodically in the Golan Heights region. The IDF will also almost certainly continue a campaign of targeting sites deeper within Syria. The IDF regularly targets Damascus International Airport (DAM) and Aleppo International Airport (ALP), causing serious material damage to the landing strips.
Lebanon-Israel
Cross-border fire involving Israeli military forces and Lebanon-based militants, including Iran-backed LH and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), will likely persist. Dozens of people have been killed and injured near the shared border in both countries since the outbreak of hostilities on Oct. 7.
Israeli officials on Oct. 16 began evacuating residents who live within 2 km (1.2 miles) of the shared border with Lebanon in northern Israel. The impacted communities include Reger, Dishon, Kfar Yuval, Margaliot, Metula, Avivim, Dobb, Ma'ayan Baruch, Baram, Manara, Yiftah, Malkiah, Meshgav Am, Yaraon, Dafna, Arab al Aramsha, Shlomi, Natua, Ya'ara, Shtula, Matat, Zerait, Shumera, Batzat, Adamit, Rosh Hankara, Kfar Giladi, and Hanita.
Israeli officials on Oct. 15 declared the shared border area with Lebanon a 'closed military zone.' Civilians cannot enter an area within 4 km (2.5 miles) of the shared border with Lebanon.
Disruptions
Officials could announce further movement restrictions or evacuations in the Israel, Syria, or Lebanon border region over the coming weeks. The movement of military personnel and checkpoints will also likely disrupt travel along primary and secondary road routes. Fighting could impact utilities, including power and water supply.
Consider avoiding nonessential travel near the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border until the situation stabilizes. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm the status of transport services before departure. Review and update contingency plans.
Tensions along Israel's northern borders with Lebanon and Syria have increased markedly since Oct. 7. Tensions have become further heightened since the alleged Israeli targeted killing of senior Hamas leader Saleh Al-Arouri in Beirut on Jan. 2. Hizbabllah launched a barrage of rockets targeting Israel on Jan. 6 in direct retaliation for the killing of Al-Aouri. The attacks reportedly caused significant material damage to an Israeli base in Mount Meron. The Israeli government responded to the rocket barrage by targeting Wissam al-Tawil, who served as the deputy commander of a unit within the LH's elite al-Hajj Radwan Force, in a drone strike in the Lebanese village of Majdal Selm, Jan. 8.
The potential for escalation is high; a projectile launched from Syria or Lebanon that causes multiple casualties in Israel will almost certainly bring about an escalation. While Israel has significantly increased security measures along its borders with Syria and Lebanon, militants will likely attempt to infiltrate its territory to carry out armed attacks. Should escalation occur, Israeli military strikes could expand further into Lebanon against critical infrastructure and militant targets, including in the Beirut area. Israeli strikes could also escalate against Syrian military and infrastructure targets, including but not limited to military bases and airports.
