Israel, PT: Cross-border violence to continue in Gaza Strip through at least March /update 31

Fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants will almost certainly continue in the Gaza Strip through at least March. Cross-border violence will also likely continue for the duration of the fighting. Neighboring and regional countries are continuing their efforts to bring about another ceasefire to release additional hostages that Hamas holds in the Gaza Strip. Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated Feb. 25 that the country's military operation in Rafah will almost certainly occur. Rafah, which is the Gaza Strip's southernmost city, has become home to over a million Palestinians escaping the conflict in Gaza City and Khan Yunis in recent months. Israeli authorities maintain that an operation in Rafah is key to destroying the remaining Hamas militants.

Since the initial Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, Gaza-based militants have fired thousands of rockets, missiles, and mortars toward cities in the center and south of the country, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. However, the projectile attacks stemming from Gaza have significantly declined since Israel's ground operation into the enclave began in late October.

Moreover, the Lebanese militant group Hizballah continues to launch rockets and drones against targets in northern Israel, with Israeli forces carrying out retaliatory strikes on Hizballah sites in southern Lebanon and occasionally deeper into the country. Al-Quds Brigades, the military wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militant group, has also claimed responsibility for ground infiltrations from southern Lebanon into northern Israel. Yemen's Al-Houthis continue to launch projectile attacks against Israel's south and commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The Yemeni group has stated that it will launch further attacks so long as the war continues.

Gaza and the West Bank
As part of its Operation Swords of Iron, the IDF has launched major retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza. The operation has killed more than 30,000 people and wounded more than 69,000 others in the territory. Major disruptions to internet service and other telecommunications have also been reported. The Israeli government continues to issue instructions to Palestinians as to which area to evacuate to in Gaza as it pursues its objective of eliminating Hamas and its key leaders.

Additionally, violence has surged between Palestinians and Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank, with Palestinian authorities claiming that at least 350 Palestinians have been killed in the territory since the Oct. 7 assault. Palestinian groups have also staged general strikes to show support for residents of Gaza. Further incidents of civil unrest and clashes are likely throughout the West Bank.

Political Response
Netanyahu has declared Israel to be at war, and Israeli military officials also assert that the country is prepared to defend against military action by Hizballah militants in Lebanon. Authorities have declared a state of national civil emergency across Israel; the move enables law enforcement officers to exercise additional authority. Netanyahu and opposition leaders have formed an emergency government and established a war cabinet.

International diplomatic efforts continue in an attempt to secure a long-term cessation of hostilities in Gaza.

Travel Disruptions
The conflict has caused significant flight disruptions in Israel, with the Israel Airports Authority temporarily closing multiple airports in central and southern areas of the country. While Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) remains open as of Feb. 25, several airlines have canceled flights to and from the facility. Nevertheless, Israeli flag carrier EL AL Israel Airlines (LY) is still operating flights serving TLV, albeit on modified schedules. Flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, are likely at TLV and other airports in Israel until the situation stabilizes. Moreover, officials may suspend all flight operations at TLV on short notice in response to conflict developments. The Civil Aviation Authority has also banned sports and leisure flights from Israeli airspace until further notice.

The IDF has closed roads near the border with Gaza. Authorities have also closed the Zikim beach on the Gaza border and suspended train services between Ashkelon and Sderot. Crossings between the West Bank and Israel are either closed or under surveillance. The Rafah crossing has reportedly opened on a limited basis for foreign nationals, dual-passport holders, and some of the most seriously injured to cross from Gaza into Egypt since Nov. 1. The Rafah crossing had previously opened for humanitarian aid, but substantive damage to roads and continued Israeli airstrikes in the area are hindering access. For further information on border crossing status, click here.

Tactical Analysis
Heightened security measures and disruptions to transport and business will almost certainly continue across Israel over at least the short term. Tight security is likely at all Israeli ports of entry. The status of border crossings, airports, seaports, roads, and rail services may change in response to conflict developments.

Anti-Israel militants may stage opportunistic attacks, such as stabbings, vehicle-rammings, and drive-by shootings, from within the West Bank, southern Lebanon, and/or Israeli cities and towns. Conflict-related demonstrations have been reported in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and additional rallies are likely in both locations. Prominent protest sites include outside the Israeli Prime Minister's residence, the Knesset, and other government buildings and historical landmarks. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces are possible at any demonstrations that materialize.