Madagascar: Adverse weather forecast to continue across much of the country through at least Feb. 18 /update 3

Heavy rainfall is forecast to continue across much of Madagascar through at least Feb. 18. The heaviest rainfall is expected across the northern half of Madagascar Feb. 15, eastern regions Feb. 16, eastern and southeastern regions Feb. 17, and central and eastern regions Feb. 18. Rainfall totals of 4-10 cm (1.6-3.9 inches) are expected in some areas. Heavy downpours may trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Flood-related disruptions are ongoing in parts of the country as of Feb. 15; more than 1,300 people have been affected by flooding across Atsinanana Region and more than 2,000 in parts of Analanjirofo Region. Flooded roads have left some communities isolated in affected areas.

As of Feb. 15, the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has issued the following warnings:

• Yellow heavy rain warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Across Alaotra-Mangoro, Analanjirofo, Atsinanana, Boeny, Fitovinany, and Vatovavy regions and Maevatanana and Tsaratanana districts in Betsiboka Region.

• Green heavy rain warnings: Across Analamanga, Atsimo-Andrefana, Bongolava, Diana, Itasy, Sava, Sofia, and Vakinankaratra regions and eastern Amoron'i Mania Region.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding, strong winds, or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the affected regions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Flooding could heighten the threat of disease outbreaks. Backflow from drains mixed with floodwaters can become trapped in open areas when inundations recede. These stagnant pools often become breeding grounds for mosquitoes and bacteria, increasing the incidence of insect- and water-borne diseases. Exposure to contaminated water from inundated industrial sites, sewer systems, and septic tanks also poses a significant health threat.