Nigeria: Officials to restrict sea, air, and road transportation in 26 states during by-elections Feb. 3 /update 1

Officials will restrict transportation 12:00-18:00 Feb. 3 across 26 states where by-elections are scheduled on the day amid a heightened threat of protests. The restrictions apply to all forms of transportation, including air, sea, and road transport. Affected states include Ebonyi, Yobe, Kebbi, Lagos, Ondo, Taraba, Benue, Borno, Kaduna, Plateau, Akwa Ibom, Anambra, Cross River, Delta, Enugu, Jigawa, Katsina, Adamawa, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Kano, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Sokoto, and Zamfara.

Protests are possible nationwide on Feb. 3 and through at least late February amid elevated political tensions. Some results of the 2023 general election, during which voters elected governors and representatives from the National Assembly and State of Houses of Assembly, are being challenged by opposition parties across various states. The opposition had contested the electoral victory of President Bola Tinubu, but the Supreme Court upheld his win in October 2023.

Separately, disruptive protests broke out in Lafia, Nasarawa State, on Jan. 19 in response to a controversial Supreme Court ruling upholding the re-election of the state governor. In Kano State, officials imposed a 24-hour curfew in late September 2023 amid elevated tensions after an election tribunal nullified the governorship victory of the opposition. Other states may take similar measures in the event of violence during election appeals.

Heightened security is likely near all polling stations on Feb. 3 and gatherings denouncing a court's decision and during state tribunals on ruling days, generally held in state capitals. Other possible gathering locations include electoral commission buildings. Demonstrators may march along or block roadways, prompting localized transport disruptions. Clashes between police and activists are possible. Clashes and other forms of violence may also occur involving rival political groups.