Pakistan: Increased security measures, internet curbs ongoing nationwide for general elections Feb. 8 /update 2

Pakistani authorities are implementing heightened security measures and internet curbs nationwide for the general elections Feb. 8. The Ministry of Interior has reportedly suspended mobile internet services across Pakistan, including in Islamabad and Rawalpindi, in response to two fatal bombings in Balochistan Province Feb. 7. In Balochistan, local officials have restricted internet services across Turbat, Mach, Chaman, and other sensitive polling areas since Feb. 5. Officials could order additional telecommunication blackouts, as well as enhanced security measures like temporary public movement restrictions, depending on the severity of any perceived threats.

Authorities will deploy around 650,000 security personnel across 90,000 polling stations on election day. Heightened security measures may include checkpoints and roadblocks near potential targets, including polling stations, political party offices, government buildings, and Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) facilities. Acts of intimidation and attacks on political party offices, candidates, and supporters are possible. Authorities have invoked Section 144 of the Penal Code in several areas, including Quetta, Balochistan Province; Hardan and Manipur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province; and Punjab Province. Under Section 144, public gatherings of more than four people are not allowed along major thoroughfares and governmental zones across the province.

The winning political party will likely hold celebratory gatherings, while protests by supporters of the losing candidate over perceived electoral irregularities may occur after officials announce the results. The ECP will provide unofficial election results Feb. 8-9, with the official results required to be released by Feb. 22. Security will likely be extremely tight at related events, especially those attended by high-profile politicians such as Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) leader Nawaz Sharif. Supporters of the opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) may also hold rallies in solidarity with its leader and former prime minister Imran Khan, who has received multiple convictions in corruption cases. Popular gathering venues include public grounds, squares, and major intersections in central areas of cities. Localized business and traffic disruptions will probably occur near rally sites. Clashes between rival political groups, as well as between party supporters and police, are possible during political gatherings and at polling stations. Police typically quell disruptive protests with force, such as water cannons, batons, and tear gas.

Further attacks by militant groups such as Islamic State-Khorsan (IS-K), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the Balochistan Liberation Army are possible during and after the vote. While the threat of terrorism is generally high nationwide, there has been an increase in violence in areas bordering Afghanistan, notably Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces, in the lead-up to polling day. In Balochistan Province, explosions have occurred at the offices of political parties and election candidates, while attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, including Dera Ismail Khan, have primarily focused on security forces and installations. Assassination attempts targeting candidates are also possible.