Portugal, Spain: Adverse weather forecast across the Iberian Peninsula through at least Feb. 10

Adverse weather is forecast across much of Portugal and Spain through at least Feb. 10. A storm system named Karlotta by the Spanish State Meteorological Service (AEMET) is expected to move in from the Atlantic over the Iberian Peninsula over the coming days, bringing strong winds, rough seas, and periods of heavy rainfall.

AEMET has issued a special advisory regarding the storm system and warned of adverse weather across much of mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands. Karlotta is expected to move in over northwestern Spain Feb. 8 and will bring heavy rainfall to central, northern, and western regions; rainfall totals of more than 8 cm (3.1 inches) are possible in western Galicia Autonomous Community Feb, 8 and winds gusting over 100 kph (62 mph) and waves up to 7 meters (23 meters) are likely along the coast of Galicia. Strong winds are also likely over mountainous parts of northern Spain. Rainfall is expected to spread across mainland Spain and also to the Balearic Islands, the northern Canary Islands, and the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla Feb. 9. Conditions are generally expected to improve Feb. 10, although rainfall is expected to linger in northwestern and mountainous parts of mainland Spain and in island regions.

The Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has also issued a special information bulletin regarding the effects of Storm Karlotta. The bulletin warns weather conditions will deteriorate across mainland Portugal and Madeira from Feb. 8, with periods of rain expected in many areas, strong winds in coastal and mountainous areas, and rough seas. The heaviest rainfall is expected in northwestern regions and winds gusting up to 110 kph (68 mph) are possible in mountainous areas. Waves of up to 5 meters (16 feet) are possible along the Atlantic coast.

The respective meteorological institutes have issued the following warnings across both countries Feb. 8:

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale): Parts of western Galicia Autonomous Community in Spain and mountainous and southern parts of Maderia in Portugal.

• Orange strong wind warnings: Parts of inland Asturias, western Basque Country, inland Cantabria, northeastern Castile and Leon, northern and western Galicia, and southern La Rioja in Spain and Viana do Castelo District in Portugal.

• Orange rough sea warnings: Across the coast of Galicia Autonomous Community in Spain and the coasts of Braga, Porto, and Viana do Castelo districts in Portugal.

• Yellow heavy rainfall warnings: Parts of far southern Castile and Leon, northern Extremadura, and central and western Galicia autonomous communities in Spain and across mainland Portugal and the rest of Maderia in Portugal.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Across much of northwestern and parts of central, northern, southwestern, and western mainland Spain and across Maderia and much of mainland Portugal.

• Yellow rough sea warnings: Parts of the northwestern, northeastern, and southeastern coasts of mainland Spain and the coasts of Aveiro, Beja, Coimbra, Faro, Leiria, Lisbon, and Setubal districts in Portugal.

Further yellow and orange heavy rainfall, strong wind, and rough sea warnings are in place across parts of both countries Feb. 9-10. Officials could update and extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where severe weather impacts utility networks.

The severe weather may cause transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities may temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected regions. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in storm-hit areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.