19 Feb 2024 | 02:38 PM UTC
Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of mid-February /update 248
Combat is ongoing in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine as of mid-February; Ukrainian forces retreat from Avdiivka.
Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to engage in positional combat operations in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine; however, as of Feb. 19, Ukrainian forces have reportedly retreated from Avdiivka in Donetsk Region following four months of incremental Russian advances. Ukrainian forces will likely continue to maintain a defensive stance through most of the line of contact. Further Russian assaults are likely in Luhansk and Kharkiv regions in the upcoming weeks. Long-range strikes on ammunition depots, logistical hubs, and eastern border regions are ongoing and represent the main operational development as of mid-February. Ukrainian cities continue to be targeted by Russian airstrikes, particularly in Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
Russian forces continue to launch combat operations in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia regions. However, very little territory outside of the Donetsk Region has changed hands in recent weeks. In Luhansk, combat operations are mostly taking place west of Kreminna, while Russian forces continue to launch ground assaults towards Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Region.
Ukrainian strikes on Russia’s logistical hubs in southern Ukraine are ongoing; long-range strikes have also damaged Russian naval assets on the Black Sea, prompting Russia to increasingly keep Black Sea Fleet vessels in port. Ukraine reportedly struck the Ropuch-class vessel Kunikov on Feb. 14.
Russian airstrikes on Ukraine’s northern, central, and western regions continue. Strikes increase in intensity, although frequency remains low. Major airstrikes involving the combined use of missiles and loitering munitions reportedly occurred on Jan. 2, Jan. 23, Jan. 30, Feb. 7, and Feb. 11, occasionally recording civilian casualties. Ukrainian air defense systems continue to report a high rate of interception. Nonetheless, falling missile debris continues to risk causing damage and casualties.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces.
Kyiv's forces have adopted an increasingly defensive stance in recent weeks following months of high-tempo operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions and will likely commit to an active defense strategy through early 2024. Intelligence suggests that Ukrainian forces deployed in counteroffensive operations throughout summer 2023 suffered manpower and equipment losses. These likely needed replacing, and frontline forces required rotations to ensure rest and recuperation and to maintain high morale. However, Kyiv appears to increasingly rely on long-range strategic strikes and the regular erosion of Russia's capabilities in and around Ukraine, targeting logistical nodes, command posts, and ammunition depots.
The conclusion of the battle of Avdiivka occurred days after a major change of leadership in Ukraine's armed forces: on Feb. 8, Colonel-General Oleksandr Syrsky was appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Although the change could affect Ukraine's long-term strategy, the appointment did likely not affect the decision to retreat from the Avdiivka stronghold. Russian forces continue to build up in other sectors of the front, including Kharkiv and Luhansk. Further Russian offensive operations could intensify in the direction of Kupyansk and Kreminna in the upcoming weeks.
Russian forces will likely continue intense airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI), military, and civilian objectives through early 2024. Airstrikes are likely less costly for Russia to maintain. Ukraine has rebuilt damaged infrastructure targeted through winter 2022-2023 relatively swiftly; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI, stretching Kyiv's capacity, rather than launching costly attacks whose effects would be swiftly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. Nonetheless, increasing power shortages are likely through the winter of 2023-2024.
