India: Unionized farmers plan to rally at Ramlila Ground in Delhi March 14 amid ongoing protests in northern states /update 5

Several farmer unions, including Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM), plan to rally at Ramlila Ground in Delhi 10:00-15:00 March 14. The action is part of a series of demonstrations over long-standing demands to secure various concessions, including minimum prices for agricultural commodities. While organizers claim at least 100,000 participants will join the event, Delhi police have approved a participation of only 5,000 supporters. Additional, unannounced demonstrations, including tractor blockades on highways in New Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh, as well as sit-in protests at the Shabhu and Khanauri border points, will likely continue, causing associated disruption across northern India through at least late March. Activists could change or cancel planned protest actions on short notice, and disruptions may persist even after demonstrations end.

Heightened security and localized transport disruptions are certain around the protest site. While organizers claim that the action will be peaceful, isolated clashes are possible if police attempt to forcibly disperse unruly sections of demonstrators. Security personnel will deploy to ensure order; authorities will likely erect security barricades around Ramlila Ground. Officials may impose traffic restrictions, including security cordons, diversions, and road closures along the venue through the evening of March 14. In previous rallies at Ramlila Ground, Delhi police issued advisories to avoid surrounding roads, especially Jawaharlal Nehru Marg from Delhi Gate to Ajmeri Gate Chow. Transport disruptions may worsen if protesters march on or block nearby roadways. Increased congestion and demand for public transport are highly probable as majority of farmers plan to reach Delhi by train.

Authorities are highly likely to maintain a heightened security posture in areas affected by protest activity elsewhere in northern India, especially in the National Capital Region (NCR), through at least end-March. The government may re-impose a ban on unauthorized public gatherings of five or more people, and implement further restrictions, including temporary public movement curbs, or expand such measures to encompass additional areas depending on operational needs. Security forces have dispersed crowds in border regions between Haryana and Punjab through the usage of batons, mass arrests, and tear gas. Sporadic clashes have also occurred, notably in the Shambhu border area of Punjab. Travelers to or from Delhi may encounter security checkpoints.

Transport disruptions, including the closure of interstate borders and road blockades by protesters, will almost certainly persist in the coming weeks. While authorities partially reopened the Singhu and Tikri border points March 2, future closures remain possible. Demonstrations will likely disrupt traffic on key roadways leading to the NCR, including on the Delhi-Haridwar highway.

Commercial disruptions, including suspension of mobile internet services and supply chain disruptions, may occur during violent protests and/or prolonged blockades. Authorities have previously suspended mobile internet and bulk messaging services in parts of Ambala District, Haryana. Reports also indicate that roadblocks have disrupted diesel fuel and cylinder gas supplies in Punjab state. Further actions may disrupt ground shipping of essential items like food and medical supplies across the northern states of India.