25 Mar 2024 | 02:51 PM UTC
Ukraine: Military operations continue in eastern and southern regions as of late March /update 250
Combat continues in eastern, southern regions of Ukraine as of late March; lasting energy disruptions expected following March 22 attacks.
Ukrainian and Russian forces continued to engage in positional combat operations in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine as of late March. Since March 12, Ukrainian forces have increased strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, and armed groups have launched cross-border assaults into Russia's Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. Ukrainian forces continue to repel Russian assaults in eastern and southern Ukraine. However, Ukrainian officials claim that an intensification of Russian offensive operations could lead to further retreats of Ukrainian forces over the short term. Long-range strikes on Ukrainian cities have continued, targeting Odesa, Poltava, Kryvyi Rih, Sumy, and Kyiv.
On the night of March 22, Russian forces conducted large-scale, coordinated airstrikes on energy infrastructure throughout Ukraine. As of March 24, power outages continue in parts of Kharkiv Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Kryvyi Rih Region, and Odesa Oblast; the heaviest damage was reported in Kharkiv Oblast, where authorities expect power outages to continue until about April 1-2. Additionally, two March 25 drone strikes on substations in Odesa Oblast resulted in further outages in the region. Officials estimate that repairs to energy production and distribution facilities may take months.
Russian forces maintain pressure on Ukrainian lines in the regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia; artillery strikes target locations in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on a daily basis and often result in civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces are reportedly reinforcing defensive positions along the length of the line of contact in an attempt to repel further Russian offensive operations that are likely to continue through at least early April. Moscow's troops have reported incremental gains in Kharkiv, although no significant breakthrough had occurred as of mid-March.
Ukraine-based Russian separatist groups have launched assaults on Russian territory, notably targeting settlements near the Russia-Ukraine border in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts overnight March 12-13. Concurrently, Ukrainian UAVs reportedly commenced strikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, causing damage to several oil refineries, and targeted the Belgorod area, inflicting civilian casualties. Strikes and assaults were ongoing as of mid-March. Ukrainian missile and drone strikes have also continued to target Russia's Black Sea Fleet, sinking the Russian patrol ship Sergey Kotov on March 5.
Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's northern, central, and western regions have continued. Air raid alarms have increased since March 12, likely as Russian forces attempt to retaliate for the ongoing strikes on Moscow’s oil and gas infrastructure; the March 22 strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure were likely a manifestation of this retaliation. A major airstrike reportedly occurred on March 15 in Odesa, killing at least 21 people and wounding more than 70 others. Strikes have also targeted the cities of Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Poltava, and Sumy; air defense systems continue to report a high rate of interception. Nonetheless, falling missile debris and occasional hits continue to cause damage and casualties.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the Air Alert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces. Charge laptops, tablets, mobile phones, and other business or travel-critical appliances regularly. Unplug electronic equipment that is not connected to surge protectors. Exercise caution when driving in areas affected by power outages. Verify that security systems are operational, including after power is restored.
Kyiv's forces have adopted an increasingly defensive stance through winter following months of high-tempo operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Ukraine will likely continue to commit to an active defense strategy through early 2024, launching long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas assets, Black Sea Fleet facilities, and oblasts bordering Ukraine, as well as targeting logistical nodes, command posts, and ammunition depots.
No significant change has occurred on the battlefield since the conclusion of the battle of Avdiivka and the appointment of Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, Ukraine's chronic lack of artillery ammunition could lead to further retreats of Kyiv's military personnel in the regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzia through 2024. Although Russian forces appear to be in an operational pause, Russian combat activity could increase from early April, particularly near Kreminna in Luhansk Region and Robotyne in Zaporizhizhia Region. Ukraine's Western allies continue campaigning for further support for Kyiv; however, the coming elections in the EU and US are likely to negatively affect Western governments' capabilities to deliver military aid and support in the measures needed for Ukraine to withstand further major Russian offensives.
Russian forces will likely continue to launch intense airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI) as well as military and civilian objectives through early 2024. It is likely not prohibitively costly for Russia to maintain its current tempo of airstrikes over the coming months. Ukraine has relatively swiftly rebuilt infrastructure damaged during winter 2022-2023; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI and stretch Kyiv's capacity, rather than launch costly attacks whose effects would be quickly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. In the wake of the March 22 strikes on energy infrastructure, outages and power shortages are likely in Kharkiv Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Kryvyi Rih Region, and Odesa Oblast through at least early April. Further attacks on energy CNI cannot be ruled out.
