China: Severe weather forecast to persist across southern and central regions through at least April 12

Severe weather is forecast to persist across parts of southern and central China through at least April 12. As of April 3, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has issued orange severe convective weather warnings (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale) across parts of southern and western Hunan, central and southern Jiangxi, southwestern Zhejiang, central and western Fujian, southeastern Guizhou, northern Guangxi, and central and northern Guangdong. The most severe thunderstorms, strong winds, or hail are likely in parts of northern Guangxi, northern Guangdong, southwestern and eastern Jiangxi, central and western Fujian, and southeastern Guizhou. Short-term heavy rainfall, with a maximum hourly rainfall of 3-5 cm (1-2 inches), is likely in parts of central China, as well as western and southern Hunan, central and southern Jiangxi, central and southern Zhejiang, Fujian, southern Chongqing, southeastern Guizhou, northern Guangxi, and central and northern Guangdong.

Blue heavy rain warnings are in place for parts of southeastern Guizhou, northern Guangxi, northwestern Guangxi, southern Hunan, central and southern Jiangxi, northwest Fujian, southern Zhejiang, and southern Chongqing. The heaviest rainfall totals are expected in parts of southeastern Jiangxi and western Fujian, where 10-12 cm (4-5 inches) are possible.

The CMA has also warned of rainfall accumulations of 18 cm (7 inches) across northern South China and central and southern Jiangnan, as well as 3-8 cm (1-3 inches) in central South China and the Sichuan Basin, and Jiangnan and eastern Guizhou through April 12.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts along the east coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.