India: Political rallies likely to intensify nationwide through late-April ahead of general elections /update 3

Various political parties are likely to continue holding rallies across India through late April to mobilize support ahead of the 2024 general elections set to occur in April 19-June 1. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and opposition party Indian National Congress (INC) are likely to hold the largest rallies involving tens of thousands of supporters. Authorities will likely deploy security personnel to guard venues and routes used by prominent campaigners like Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, state chief ministers, and INC leaders Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi. Gatherings in urban centers may disrupt transport operations and local businesses. Upcoming notable events include:

• BJP rallies April 13-17: On April 13, BJP national president JP Nadda is expected to join the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) election rally at the Agri Expo center at Chumukedima, Nagaland State. On April 14, Prime Minister Modi will visit Mysuru and Mangalore, Karnataka State. Modi is expected to hold a rally at 15:00 in front of the Gold Finch City in Mangalore before attending another rally at 16:00 on Mysuru's Maharaja College grounds. On April 15, Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah will attend a rally at Kumarghat, Tripura State. Amit Shah will hold a rally at Paloura, Jammu and Kashmir State, on April 16. On April 17, Modi will address a rally at 13:00 at the Swami Vivekananda Maidan in Agartala, Tripura State.

• INC rallies April 13-16: On April 13, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra will hold a rally in Uttarakhand State. On April 15, Rahul Gandhi will visit the Sulthan Bathery, Mananthavady, and Kalpetta Assembly constituencies in Wayanad District, Kerala State. On April 16, Gandhi will visit the Thiruvambadi, Eranad, Wandoor, and Nilambur constituencies in Malappuram District, Kerala State.

Other rallies, street marches, and vehicle processions are likely across the country through at least late-April. The tightest security is likely during events led by Prime Minister Modi; reports indicate he may address up to 150 rallies during his campaign trail. The most popular venues for political rallies include sports and university grounds, prominent public squares, and major highways. Well-attended gatherings are likely to prompt security deployments and may cause localized transport disruptions. Clashes between rival party supporters at political events cannot be ruled out, especially in Kerala and West Bengal states. Skirmishes are also possible if police attempt to forcibly disperse disruptive crowds. Unionized farmers could intensify their sporadic protest campaign in the lead-up to the elections to show their discontent for party policies they claim is against the farmers. Counterdemonstrations to any rally cannot be ruled out, particularly at rallies occurring in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana States. On April 7, BJP candidate Taranjit Singh Sandhu received heavy protests from farmers when holding political rallies in Gangomahal and Kallomahal villages near Amritsar, Punjab State.