11 Apr 2024 | 03:22 PM UTC
Ukraine: Military operations continue in eastern and southern regions as of mid-April /update 252
Combat continues in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine as of mid-April; airstrikes increasingly target Ukraine's energy facilities.
Positional combat is ongoing in Eastern Ukraine as of mid-April. Russian forces maintain an overall offensive posture in the regions of Luhansk, Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia; Ukrainian forces maintain a defensive posture throughout the line of contact and occasionally launch counterattacks on advancing Russian forces. Since mid-March, Ukrainian forces have engaged in a campaign of airstrikes on Russian oil and gas facilities, and armed groups have launched cross-border assaults into Russia's Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. As of mid-April, the assaults are likely continuing, and Ukrainian airstrikes into Russia continue to threaten Moscow's oil refineries. Ukrainian officials claim that an intensification of Russian offensive operations could lead to further retreats of Ukrainian forces over the short term. Long-range strikes on Ukrainian cities have continued, targeting Dnipro, Kharkiv, Lviv, Odesa, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia. Artillery strikes have also continued near front-line areas into mid-April.
Russian forces are increasing large-scale coordinated airstrikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure targeting hydroelectric power plants, gas storage sites, and power stations. Since mid-March, Russian airstrikes caused widespread power outages in several regions, including Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipropetrovsk, and Odesa. On April 11, Russian forces launched over 80 missiles and drones, causing significant damage to power plants in southern Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Lviv; over 200,000 people remained without electricity due to the strike in Kharkiv Region. Further strikes targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure occurred on March 22, March 25, and April 9. Airstrikes in Ukraine’s eastern city of Kharkiv are likely to increase through late April. Ukrainian authorities claim that the country's current air defense capabilities are becoming increasingly less effective due to a lack of equipment and ammunition.
Russian forces have increased their operational tempo, deploying additional personnel and mechanized brigades in Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Limited offensive operations are ongoing on Ukrainian lines in the regions of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia; artillery strikes target locations in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia on a daily basis and often result in civilian casualties. As of mid-April, Ukrainian troops continue to reinforce defensive positions along the length of the line of contact in an attempt to repel further Russian offensive operations; however, Ukrainian authorities claim that Ukrainian forces could retreat in the case of a major Russian offensive in the eastern regions. Moscow's troops have reported incremental gains in Kharkiv, although no significant breakthrough has occurred as of mid-April.
Ukraine-based Russian separatist groups are likely engaged in limited combat operations in Russian territory as of mid-April, notably in settlements near the Russia-Ukraine border in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts. Russian forces are likely engaged in limited counteroffensive operations; however, reporting covering ongoing combat has decreased since late March, likely due to operational security considerations.
Ukraine's air campaign targeting military facilities, oil refineries, and industrial sites is ongoing as of mid-April. On April 2, Ukrainian forces reportedly hit an oil refinery and a drone production facility in Tatarstan, located approximately 1,200 km (745 miles) from the Ukrainian border. Such successful long-range strike capabilities increase the territory threatened by airstrikes and the possible objectives reachable by Kyiv's UAVs. Drone attacks on oil refineries inside Russia led to a slump in the country's gasoline production during the last week of March. Ukrainian missile and drone strikes have also continued to target Russia's Black Sea Fleet, damaging the Ropucha-class Azov, Yamal, and Konstantin Olshansky landing ships on March 23-24.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the Air Alert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces. Regularly charge laptops, tablets, mobile phones, and other business or travel-critical appliances. Unplug electronic equipment that is not connected to surge protectors. Exercise caution when driving in areas affected by power outages. Verify that security systems are operational, including after power is restored.
Kyiv's forces have adopted an increasingly defensive stance through spring following months of high-tempo operations in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions. Ukraine will likely continue to commit to an active defense strategy through mid-2024, conducting long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas assets, Black Sea Fleet facilities, and oblasts bordering Ukraine with greater frequency, as well as targeting logistical nodes, command posts, and ammunition depots.
No significant change has occurred on the battlefield since the conclusion of the battle of Avdiivka and the appointment of Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, Ukraine's chronic lack of artillery ammunition could lead to further retreats of Kyiv's military personnel in the regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia through 2024. Although Russian forces appear to be in an operational pause, Russian combat activity could increase, particularly near Kreminna in Luhansk Region and Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Region. Ukraine's Western allies continue campaigning for further support for Kyiv; however, the coming elections in the EU and US are likely to negatively affect Western governments' capabilities to deliver military aid and support in the measures needed for Ukraine to withstand further major Russian offensives.
Russian forces will likely continue to launch intense airstrikes targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure (CNI) as well as military and civilian objectives through early 2024. It is likely not prohibitively costly for Russia to maintain its current tempo of airstrikes over the coming months. Ukraine has relatively swiftly rebuilt infrastructure damaged during winter 2022-2023; therefore, Russian forces might attempt to use their arsenal to maintain pressure on Ukraine's CNI and stretch Kyiv's capacity rather than launch costly attacks whose effects would be quickly mitigated by Ukraine's emergency teams. Further attacks on Ukraine's energy-related CNI, in particular, cannot be ruled out.
