Bay of Bengal: Severe Cyclonic Storm Remal tracking toward northeastern India and southwestern Bangladesh May 26 /update 2

Severe Cyclonic Storm Remal is tracking northward over the northern part of the Bay of Bengal toward northeastern India and southwestern Bangladesh May 26. As of 17:30 IST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 191 km (119 miles) south of Kolkata, India.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make landfall over West Bengal State, India, near the border with Khulna Division in Bangladesh, late May 26. The storm will weaken into a cyclonic storm as it tracks north-northeastward around the West Bengal-Khulna Division border through early May 27. The system is then expected to track northeastward into northern Khulna Division and across Dhaka Division May 27 before weakening further and dissipating as it approaches Mymensingh Division early May 28. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

As of May 26, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department had advised the maritime ports of Mongla and Payra to hoist Great Danger Signal No. 10 (the highest level on a 10-tier scale) and Chattogram and Cox's Bazaar to hoist Great Danger Signal No. 9 due to the system's approach. Rainfall totals of 4.4-8.8 cm (1.7-3.5 inches) and localized higher amounts are forecast over much of Bangladesh during the passing of the storm, and a storm surge of around 2.4-3.7 meters (8-12 feet) above normal tides is forecast in coastal areas. Authorities have advised all vessels in the North Bay and the deep sea to remain in port until further notice. The Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA) suspended river transport operations in coastal areas from late May 25.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of heavy rainfall and strong winds over parts of West Bengal, Odisha, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Assam, Meghalaya, and Arunachal Pradesh states over the coming days, as well as storm surge of up to around 3-4 meters (10-13 feet) in coastal areas of West Bengal around the time the storm makes landfall. The IMD has issued a red cyclone warning and red heavy rainfall warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) over Gangetic West Bengal State May 26-27 and red heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, and lightning warnings over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura states May 27, Assam and Meghalaya May 27-28, and Arunachal Pradesh May 28. Orange heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, and lightning warnings are in place over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura states May 26 and May 28, Arunachal Pradesh May 27, and Sikkim and Sub-HImalayan West Bengal May 27-28. Yellow heavy rain and strong wind warnings are in place over Odisha May 26 and yellow thunderstorm and lightning warnings have been issued for Jharkhand May 26 and Bihar May 26-27. Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities in Bangladesh have evacuated more than 800,000 people across 16 coastal districts to around 8,000-9,000 emergency shelters ahead of the storm's approach. Authorities in India's West Bengal State have evacuated around 110,000 people from low-lying, at-risk coastal areas of the state.

Officials at Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose International Airport (CCU) in Kolkata have announced that flight operations will be suspended at the airport from 12:00 IST May 26 through 09:00 IST May 27, affecting nearly 400 flights. Several local trains in the Sealdah and Howrah divisions connecting Kolkata and Howrah with the adjoining districts were also canceled. The Syama Prasad Mookerjee Port in Kolkata is suspending all operations from the evening of May 26 through at least early May 27. In Bangladesh, flight operations have been suspended until further notice at Cox's Bazar International Airport (CXB) and at Shah Amanat International Airport (CGP) in Chattogram between 12:00 and 20:00 BST May 26. Flight disruptions at other airports in the region, train disruptions, and temporary closures of other ports are also possible.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Flash flooding, landslides, and additional evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Any raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters would pose a serious health threat.