India: Political rallies likely to intensify nationwide through at least mid-May /update 10

Political rallies will likely intensify through at least mid-May amid the general election period slated to occur through June 1. In recent weeks, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the primary opposition party, the Indian National Congress (INC), have protested in several urban centers. As of May 7, some planned campaigns include the following:

• May 11: Prime Minister Modi will attend a rally in Balangir, Odisha State.

• May 12: Modi will visit Patna, Bihar State.

• May 13: Modi will hold rallies at 09:30 in Hajipur, Bihar state, 10:30 in Motipur, and 12:30 in the Saran district. INC lawmaker Rahul Gandhi and other prominent opposition parties will hold a mega rally across Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh State, starting at 11:00.

Further gatherings of various types, including street marches, are highly probable by the BJP and other political parties. Additionally, unionized farmers could intensify their sporadic protest campaigns to publicize their perceived grievances with existing agricultural policies. Counterdemonstrations are possible and may coincide with other prior gatherings. Potential rally sites include sports and university grounds, prominent public squares, and major highways. Well-attended events typically draw hundreds of thousands of participants.

Authorities will likely maintain an increased security posture in several regions across India. The tightest security is likely during events led by Prime Minister Modi; reports indicate he may address up to 150 rallies during his campaign trail. Clashes between police and activists, as well as members of rival political camps, are possible.