30 May 2024 | 11:00 AM UTC
Madagascar: Increased security, protests likely nationwide through early June amid release of parliamentary election results /update 1
Increased security, protests likely in Madagascar through early June amid release of parliamentary election results.
Increased security is likely nationwide through early June following the parliamentary elections. The voting was held on May 29 in relative calm, although turnout was reportedly low, and incidents of violence, inconsistencies, and possible fraud were noted by independent observers. Overnight vote counting was impeded by ongoing power shortages, possibly delaying the publication of the results. Some opposition candidates have accused the government of irregularities and have called for their supporters to closely supervise the ballot counting. It is unclear when the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) will be able to announce the results.
Post-election periods are typically tense in Madagascar, with allegations of voter fraud very common. Opposition parties are likely to reject the result, and their supporters to protest near party headquarters, governmental buildings, and polling stations. Security forces are prone to the use of force, especially during street protests in support of opposition candidates. Clashes between activists from rival political camps, or between protesters and police, are not uncommon. Labor and student organizations may also take advantage of the increased political focus to stage protests or strikes in support of their own agendas. In Antananarivo, hotspots include the Place du 13 Mai, the Avenue de l'Independance, Mahamasina stadium, and the University of Ankatso campus.
Authorities will almost certainly maintain a higher security posture nationwide in the coming days, particularly along key thoroughfares and near government buildings, as a precaution. Security measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and searches of vehicles and pedestrians. Authorities could implement localized curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest. In the capital, authorities will likely restrict pedestrian access to prominent city squares and other public areas. Security will probably be tightest on the day the CENI delivers its results. Localized business and transport disruptions are likely.
Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent areas where large demonstrations are taking place. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Heed the instructions of local authorities. Refrain from publicly discussing politically sensitive topics; refrain from wearing orange clothing due to its association with the ruling party.
Incumbent President Andry Rajoelina is lobbying to retain his Young Malagasies Determined (TGV) party's outright parliamentary majority. The TGV faces a similar opposition to that which contested the presidential elections in November 2023, when Rajoelina secured re-election after six weeks of violent protests resulting in increased police presence, the closure of Antananarivo's main avenue, and overnight curfews.
These are the country's third free legislative elections since a 2009 coup. The incoming National Assembly will consist of 163 seats elected through a single-round constituency-based election - an increase from 151 to compensate for demographic growth. The outgoing parliament was dominated by the president's alliance. Rajoelina's party is favored to win as it is the only one fielding candidates in all 119 districts, with the main opposition only fielding 68 candidates.
