New Caledonia: Ongoing violent tensions, tight security likely to persist territorywide through at least mid-May /update 5

Violent protests, heightened security measures, and associated disruptions will likely persist in New Caledonia through at least mid-May. The demonstrations began on May 13 after the French parliament approved constitutional and electoral reforms to expand voting rights to long-term residents. Incidents of widespread arson, looting, rioting, and clashes have occurred. The violence has left at least three people killed, over 100 security personnel injured, and 200 people arrested. As of early May 16, the government has declared a territory-wide state of emergency until further notice.

The initial duration of the state of emergency is likely to last 12 days. Under such orders, officials typically prohibit public gatherings, deploy additional reinforcement, close public spaces, including places of worship, conduct administrative searches, block websites deemed a security risk, and conduct residential subpoenas. While officials have deployed 1,800 security personnel, the government will send an additional 500 officers. Officials in Australia and New Zealand are advising a high degree of caution when traveling to Noumea; other countries may revise their travel advisories if significant violence persists.

Authorities continue to impose a nightly 18:00-06:00 curfew. Additional restrictions include a ban on unauthorized public gatherings, the sale of alcohol, and the transportation of weapons. Further pro-independence protests and related violence will likely continue despite ongoing security measures. Potential gathering sites include military barracks, government buildings such as the Congress of New Caledonia and the High Commission of the Republic offices, public squares, and thoroughfares. The largest gatherings will probably continue to materialize in downtown Noumea. Well-attended gatherings will likely draw hundreds of participants. Reports indicate the use of firearms by both protesters and security forces, sustaining the risk of further violent altercations. Security forces may use live ammunition/batons/tear gas/water cannons to disperse unruly crowds.

The tensions have caused related disruptions to air, ground, and maritime transport services. The La Tontouta International Airport (NOU) is closed through at least May 17. Aircalin (SB) and Air Caledonie (TY) carriers have previously canceled flights; further disruptions and cancelations are likely. The Taneo and Rai bus networks have ceased operations, while blockades at the Grand Warf on the Isle of Pines have prompted the suspension of commercial ferries between Noumea and the Isle of Pines. The emergency maritime shuttle system between Nouméa and Vallon-Dore has been suspended indefinitely. Protester or police roadblocks continue along major roads in several locations, including Dumbea, La Conception, Mont-Dore, Noumea, and Saint-Louis.

At least 30 business premises, including shops and factories, have faced looting and arson attacks, resulting in property and vehicular damage. The unrest has triggered long queues for stockpiling essential items such as food, fuel, and medicine amid the closure of some stores and gas stations, potentially prompting artificial shortages in the coming days. Precautionary business closures, especially in Noumea, cannot be ruled out due to the threat of protest violence and a potential increase in opportunistic crimes. Banks and educational institutes are also facing recurrent or limited closures.