28 May 2024 | 03:14 PM UTC
South Africa: Increased security likely nationwide on and following Election Day on May 29 /update 4
Authorities on high alert for political violence on and following Election Day in South Africa on May 29; highest risk in KwaZulu-Natal.
South Africa will hold its general election on May 29, amid increased insecurity, water and energy crises, and recurring service delivery protests. Authorities have deployed additional security forces nationwide. Political violence incidents have been noted in eThekwini on May 24, where uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party protesters tried to block the N2 highway, and on May 26 in Katlehong near Johannesburg, where two MK party members were murdered allegedly by African Nation Congress (ANC) supporters. Non-related incidents of civil unrest also occurred in Mthatha on May 27, disrupting early voting procedures. Reports suggest a heightened risk of riots nationwide, but the risk of disruptions is especially elevated in KwaZulu-Natal, especially near Durban, Amajuba (Newcastle), and uThukela (Ladysmith), where the likelihood of further violence between the ANC and MK is high.
Election campaigns in South Africa are largely peaceful, though there are growing fears of political violence and riots on and following this year's election. Likely hotspots include voting stations, Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) offices, party headquarters, government buildings, and police offices. Lower-income neighborhoods are also particularly vulnerable to political violence. Trade unions and civil society organizations could also strike or stage peripheral protests. There also is a higher risk of service delivery protests motivated by socio-economic conditions, especially near lower-income neighborhoods or along major highways.
Increased tensions are likely nationwide for the duration of the campaign. An increased security presence, road traffic, and business disruptions are likely around political events and polling stations. Service delivery protests are likely in the coming months and could escalate into broader acts of rioting should security services not prove able to contain crowds. Clashes between security forces, opposing rival activists, striking union members, or other forms of political violence are likely. While most violence is usually directed toward opposing supporters, it can occasionally affect bystanders and businesses.
Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence; avoid traveling in the vicinity of polling stations. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Refrain from wearing ostensibly bright colors - blue, green, yellow, red - if traveling near a political gathering location for fear of being mistaken for a party supporter. Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Plan for business closures and employee absenteeism on the day of the election.
This will be South Africa's seventh free election since the end of minority rule in 1994. South Africa's national elections follow a closed-list, compensatory proportional representation system. Each party receives the same share of parliamentary seats that it did of the votes; the president is chosen from parliament. Of the 400 seats, half are allocated to national lists and another half to provincial lists. Voters will also elect their provincial parliaments on the same day.
The election is too close to call, with the possibility that the ruling ANC could fall below 50 percent for the first time, requiring it to establish a coalition government. Incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the ruling ANC and likely favorite, is running for a second consecutive mandate. His main opponents will likely be John Steenhuisen's Democratic Alliance (DA) and Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Former President Jacob Zuma is also campaigning for the newly formed MK Party. For the first time, independent candidates are allowed to contest elections. This, as well as the ANC's gradual decline in popularity, has led to a significant number of new entries; over 50 parties and 12 independent candidates are on the ballot.
The Constitutional Court has barred Zuma from running and removed him from the electoral lists. His party, however, remains intent on maintaining him as their leader, with some of its supporters warning of violence should the ANC or the IEC attempt to disrupt their campaign. Zuma remains a highly influential personality in his native KwaZulu-Natal province; observers mostly point to his imprisonment in 2021 as the starting point of a week-long riot in KwaZulu-Natal and Durban, which claimed over 350 lives. Similar events should not be disregarded should MK supporters perceive the ANC to be interfering with their campaign.
