30 May 2024 | 09:43 AM UTC
South Africa: Increased security likely nationwide through early June following general election /update 5
Authorities on high alert for political violence through early June awaiting South Africa's election results; highest risk in KwaZulu-Natal.
Increased security remains likely nationwide through early June following South Africa's general election. Citizens voted on May 29, amid increased tensions due to the high levels of uncertainty around the outcome. Election day proceeded peacefully with only minor disruptions and no violence; long queues were reported with voting extending beyond the allocated timeframe. Early projections are expected in the coming hours, with the definitive results known around June 2. Authorities deployed additional security forces nationwide following incidents of political violence in the days preceding the election in eThekwini (Durban) and Katlehong near Johannesburg. Reports suggest a heightened risk of riots nationwide, but the risk of disruptions is especially elevated in KwaZulu-Natal, especially near Durban, Amajuba (Newcastle), and uThukela (Ladysmith).
Election campaigns in South Africa are largely peaceful, though there are concerns of political violence and riots following this election. Likely hotspots include Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) offices, party headquarters, government buildings, and police offices. Lower-income neighborhoods are also particularly vulnerable to political violence. Trade unions and civil society organizations could also strike or stage peripheral protests. There also is a higher risk of service delivery protests motivated by socio-economic conditions, especially near lower-income neighborhoods or along major highways.
An increased security presence, road traffic, and business disruptions are likely around political events and polling stations. Service delivery protests are likely in the coming months and could escalate into broader acts of rioting should security services not prove able to contain crowds. Clashes between security forces, opposing rival activists, striking union members, or other forms of political violence are likely. While most violence is usually directed toward opposing supporters, it can occasionally affect bystanders and businesses.
Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Refrain from wearing ostensibly bright colors - blue, green, yellow, red - if traveling near a political gathering location for fear of being mistaken for a party supporter. Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Plan for business closures and employee absenteeism on the day of the election.
This was South Africa's seventh free election since the end of minority rule in 1994. South Africa's national elections follow a closed-list, compensatory proportional representation system. Each party receives the same share of parliamentary seats that it did of the votes; the president is chosen from parliament. Of the 400 seats, half are allocated to national lists and another half to provincial lists. Voters will also elect their provincial parliaments on the same day.
The election is too close to call, with the possibility that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) could fall below 50 percent for the first time, requiring it to establish a coalition government. Incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the ruling ANC and likely favorite, is running for a second consecutive mandate. His main opponents are John Steenhuisen's Democratic Alliance (DA) and Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). Former President Jacob Zuma is also campaigning for the newly formed uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party. For the first time, independent candidates are allowed to contest elections. This, as well as the ANC's gradual decline in popularity, has led to a significant number of new entries; over 50 parties and 12 independent candidates are on the ballot.
The Constitutional Court has barred Zuma from running and removed him from the electoral lists. His party, however, remains intent on maintaining him as their leader, with some of its supporters warning of violence should the ANC or the IEC attempt to disrupt their campaign. Zuma remains a highly influential personality in his native KwaZulu-Natal province; observers mostly point to his imprisonment in 2021 as the starting point of a week-long riot in KwaZulu-Natal and Durban, which claimed over 350 lives.
