20 May 2024 | 09:33 AM UTC
South Africa: Political campaign likely to cause disruptions ahead of the elections on May 29. /update 2
Rallies, protests, heightened security likely ahead of South Africa's May 29 elections; increased tensions likely following court ruling.
South Africa will hold its general election on May 29, amid increased insecurity, water and energy crises, and recurring service delivery protests. Incumbent President Cyril Ramaphosa, leader of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and likely favorite, is running for a second consecutive mandate. His main opponents will likely be John Steenhuisen's Democratic Alliance (DA) and Julius Malema's Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF). This will also be the country's new electoral system's first iteration, allowing independent candidates to run against political parties. Voters will also elect their provincial parliaments on the same day. On May 20, the Constitutional Court barred former President Jacob Zuma of the new uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party from contesting the elections.
Election campaigns in South Africa are largely peaceful, though they can generate localized disruptions for travelers. Political rallies, demonstrations, and campaign events will occur nationwide but will concentrate in large urban areas, including Cape Town, Durban, Gqeberha (Port Elizabeth), Johannesburg, Pietermaritzburg, Polokwane and Pretoria (Tshwane). Hotspots will likely include large venues and stadia, party headquarters, government buildings, and state-owned utility offices. Trade unions and civil society organizations could also strike or stage peripheral protests. There also is a higher risk of service delivery protests motivated by socio-economic conditions, especially near lower-income neighborhoods or along major highways.
Increased tensions are likely nationwide for the duration of the campaign. An increased security presence, road traffic, and business disruptions are likely around political events and polling stations. Service delivery protests are likely in the coming months and could escalate into broader acts of rioting should security services not prove able to contain crowds. Clashes between security forces, opposing rival activists, striking union members, or other forms of political violence are likely. While most violence is usually directed toward opposing supporters, it can occasionally affect bystanders and businesses. Violence, especially in KwaZulu-Natal, is especially likely in the event of Jacob Zuma and his supporters rejecting the Constitutional Court's verdict.
Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence; avoid traveling in the vicinity of polling stations. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Refrain from wearing ostensibly bright colors - blue, green, yellow, red - if traveling near a political gathering location for fear of being mistaken for a party supporter. Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Plan for business closures and employee absenteeism on the day of the election.
This will be South Africa's seventh free election since the end of minority rule in 1994. South Africa's national elections follow a closed-list, compensatory proportional representation system. Each party receives the same share of parliamentary seats that it did of the votes; the president is chosen from parliament. Of the 400 seats, half are allocated to national lists and another half to provincial lists. For the first time, independent candidates are allowed to contest elections. This, as well as the ANC's gradual decline in popularity, has led to a significant number of new entries; over 50 parties and 12 independent candidates are on the ballot.
The election is too close to call, with the possibility that the ruling ANC could fall below 50 percent for the first time, requiring it to establish a coalition government. Recent experiences of coalitions at a municipal level in Johannesburg, Pretoria, and Ekurhuleni have demonstrated how unstable these are in South African politics. Should this occur, the ANC will likely rely on smaller parties and independent candidates to constitute a majority. Their lead opposition, the DA, has already announced the forming of a political alliance with ten other smaller parties in hopes of aggregating their votes into a majority. Far-left party, the EFF, while unlikely to reach a majority on their own, could potentially court the ANC into a coalition.
The Electoral Court overturned the IEC's previous decision to bar Zuma from running, allowing him to run despite his prior sentencing to 15 months imprisonment in a corruption case. His party, MK, remains intent on maintaining him as their leader, with some of its supporters warning of violence should the ANC or the IEC attempt to disrupt their campaign. Zuma remains a highly influential personality in his native KwaZulu-Natal province; observers mostly point to his imprisonment in 2021 as the starting point of a week-long riot in KwaZulu-Natal and Durban, which claimed over 350 lives. Similar events should not be disregarded should Zuma's or MK's running be perceived to be hindered by judicial challenges.
