China: Severe weather forecast to continue across central, eastern, and southern regions through at least June 30 /update 1

Severe weather is forecast to continue across parts of central, eastern, and southern China through at least June 30. Heavy rainfall over the region in recent days has led to widespread flooding, landslides, and associated disruptions, and further adverse weather over the coming days will likely exacerbate the situation. As of June 24, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) has warned of continuous heavy rainfall over a broad area from eastern Yunnan Province east-northeastward across the affected region to the Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Zhejiang coasts June 24-30.

The CMA has issued red heavy rain warnings (the highest level on a four-tier scale) across parts of the region over the coming days due to continuous heavy rainfall June 24-27. Rainfall totals of 25-27 cm (10-11 inches) are possible over parts of southern Anhui, northeastern Jiangxi, and western Zhejiang June 24-25. Heavy downpours may be accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds. The CMA has also issued a blue severe convective weather warning over parts of the affected areas June 24-25. Thunderstorms, strong winds, and hail are likely in parts of central Anhui, central and southern Jiangsu, eastern Hubei, central Hunan, central and northern Jiangxi, central and southern Zhejiang, northeastern Sichuan, eastern Guangxi, and western Guangdong and short-term heavy downpours are expected over parts of central Anhui, central Jiangsu, northern Hubei, central and southern Hunan, central and northern Jiangxi, Zhejiang, northern Fujian, northeastern Sichuan, southern Guizhou, central and southern Yunnan, Guangxi, and central, western, and northern Guangdong. Orange and yellow landslide warnings are in place for parts of western Zhejiang, southern Anhui, northern Jiangxi, eastern and western Hunan, northern Guangxi, and southern Guizhou. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Previous heavy rainfall in recent days and weeks has triggered landslides and flooding across parts of the region, resulting in fatalities, damage, and widespread disruptions. Authorities reported eight fatalities after a landslide struck four houses in China’s Douxi village of Xinhuang Dong Autonomous County in Hunan Province June 23. Several people were swept away in floodwaters in Taoyuan County in Hunan Province June 22. at least one of whom remains missing. Around 4,000 people in Taoyuan County have been evacuated from at-risk areas and many roads across the county are closed. In Anhui Province, authorities have evacuated more than 30,000 people and rescued more than 4,000 people stranded by flooding. Hundreds of tourist spots are closed due to rising river levels. Downpours over previous weeks have led to hundreds of thousands being affected, thousands evacuated, and dozens of fatalities across the southern provinces of Fujian, Guangdong, and Guangxi, with at least 47 fatalities reported in Guangdong alone. Further heavy rainfall over the coming days will likely exacerbate the ongoing flood situation and hamper recovery efforts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts along the east coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.