Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Alberto tracking westward off the northeast coast of Mexico as of late June 19 /update 3

Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 has formed into Tropical Storm Alberto and is tracking westward in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late June 19. As of 22:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 220 km (135 miles) east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain tropical storm strength as it tracks generally westward and makes landfall over far northern Veracruz State, Mexico, close to the border with Tamaulipas State, early June 20. The system is expected to weaken and then dissipate as it moves inland and tracks westward over far southeastern San Luis Potosi State June 20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

Officials have issued the following coastal warnings and watches due to the storm system:

• Tropical Storm Warning: the Texas coast from San Luis Pass southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande and the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Tecolutla, Veracruz State.

Tropical storm conditions are likely within the warning area from June 19 through early June 20. Authorities will likely update, extend, and rescind warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

The system is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with localized higher amounts of up to 51 cm (20 inches) possible in elevated areas of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas. Flash and urban flooding, along with new and renewed river flooding, are likely. Landslides are possible in areas of higher terrain across northeastern Mexico.

Storm surge is possible along parts of the coast and could reach 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from Sargent to Sabine Pass in Texas and Galveston Bay and 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) in northeastern Mexico near where the storm makes landfall, from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent in Texas, and from Sabine Pass, Texas, to the Vermilion-Cameron parish line, Louisiana. Tornadoes are possible late June 19-early June 20 across parts of Deep South and Southeast Texas. Swells generated by the storm will affect the coast of Texas and northeastern Mexico through June 21; life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely.

Authorities in Tamaulipas State have activated more than 300 emergency shelters in the event of possible evacuations across the state ahead of the storm's approach, although no mandatory evacuations have been confirmed as of late June 19. Schools have been suspended across the state June 20-21, and several ports on the Gulf of Mexico coast have suspended or restricted operations.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.