India: Authorities to tighten security in New Delhi June 9 for inauguration; official events, related disruptions likely nationwide /update 2

Increased security, political rallies, and related disruptions are likely nationwide through at least mid-June ahead of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's swearing-in ceremony on June 9. While initial sources indicated the ceremony would occur on June 8, emerging reports suggest the event will occur on June 9. On June 9, officials will host the ceremony at the Rashtrapati Bhavan in New Delhi at 18:00. Several foreign dignitaries from neighboring countries, including Nepal and Sri Lanka, will attend the event. Sources suggest 8,000 people will attend the gathering. Authorities will sustain an increased security presence throughout the city, with the tightest measures to be maintained near sites hosting the foreign delegates and Prime Minister Modi. Officials will also uphold enhanced security restrictions near the ITC Maurya, Leela Palace, Oberoi, and Taj hotels. Large celebratory gatherings could also occur nationwide.

Opposition political parties, such as the Indian National Congress (INC) and other organizations, are highly likely to hold related demonstrations over the coming days. Activists opposed to current legislation related to agricultural and immigration policies could stage diverse gatherings, including road blockades. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, public squares, transportation hubs, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings could draw hundreds of thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain an increased security presence in parts of the country, especially in the National Capital Region (NCR). Political violence could occur in some high-risk locations, such as Kerala and West Bengal states. If significant violence occurs, officials in urban centers are likely to implement public gathering restrictions, temporary public movement curbs, and other enhanced restrictions.

Clashes between supporters of rival political camps cannot be ruled out. Increased militant activity could prevail. Separatist and terrorist groups remain active in the Kashmir Valley, as well as parts of northeast India like Assam and Manipur states. In parts of eastern and southern India, Maoist-based groups could increase the frequency of various assaults targeting government and security entities in rural areas. Potential militant targets include security personnel, polling centers, election rallies, government facilities, and political party offices. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.