India: Increased security and rallies likely to continue nationwide through at least mid-June in aftermath of general elections /update 1

Political rallies, increased security, and related disruptions are likely to continue nationwide through at least mid-June following the recent general elections period. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its political alliance have attained 292 seats, exceeding the 272 required to form a government, while BJP leader Prime Minister Narendra Modi has secured a third term. On June 8, Prime Minister Modi will be sworn in, and the ceremony will probably be held at the Rashtrapati Bhavan in Delhi. That same day, large celebratory gatherings could occur nationwide.

Opposition political parties, such as the Indian National Congress (INC) and other organizations, are highly likely to hold related demonstrations over the coming days. Activists opposed to current legislation related to agricultural and immigration policies could stage diverse gatherings, including road blockades. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, public squares, transportation hubs, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings could draw hundreds of thousands of participants. Activists will probably stage large gatherings on June 8.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain an increased security presence in parts of the country, especially in the National Capital Region (NCR). The tightest security will likely be deployed near sites hosting the prime minister on June 8. Political violence could occur in some high-risk locations, such as Kerala and West Bengal states. Officials in urban centers are likely to implement public gathering restrictions, temporary public movement curbs, and other enhanced restrictions if significant violence occurs.

Clashes between supporters of rival political camps cannot be ruled out. Increased militant activity could prevail. Separatist and terrorist groups remain active in the Kashmir Valley, as well as parts of northeast India like Assam and Manipur states. In parts of eastern and southern India, Maoist-based groups could increase the frequency of various assaults targeting government and security entities in rural areas. Potential militant targets include security personnel, polling centers, election rallies, government facilities, and political party offices. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.