26 Jun 2024 | 06:38 PM UTC
Israel, Lebanon, Syria: Cross-border violence to continue and could potentially escalate into late July /update 16
Cross-border violence between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah will likely intensify into July amid both sides' belligerent rhetoric.
Tensions along the Israel-Lebanon frontier, as well as cross-border violence between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Lebanese Hizballah (LH), will remain unpredictable and very likely intensify into at least early July. During late June, leaders on both sides have engaged in increasingly belligerent rhetoric and threats amid intensive diplomatic efforts by the US and French governments to avoid escalation into a broader conflict. Moreover, as of June 26, several nations, including Australia, Canada, Germany, and the Netherlands, have advised their citizens to leave Lebanon while commercial flights remain available, pointing to the potential for rapid deterioration of the already volatile security situation.
The LH leadership asserts that the organization will continue its attacks on Israel until a ceasefire agreement is reached in the Gaza Strip. The Israeli government, on the other hand, has increased the number of targeted drone and missile strikes it has been conducting against key Hamas and LH political and military leaders; Israeli airstrikes have killed multiple senior LH and Hamas leaders in different parts of Lebanon in recent weeks. Tel Aviv has vowed further action in response to projectile attacks on Israel.
Cross-border fire involving the IDF and Syrian military forces is likely to occur periodically in the Golan Heights region. The IDF will also almost certainly continue targeting sites deeper within Syria. The IDF regularly targets Damascus International Airport (DAM) and Aleppo International Airport (ALP), causing serious material damage to the landing strips.
Unless averted, any broader conflict that might develop will prompt severe commercial disruptions in the nations directly involved. Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) would likely close, making leaving Lebanon extremely difficult; neighboring countries could also close their airspace, resulting in widespread flight cancellations and disruptions. Authorities could also impose further movement restrictions or evacuations in the Israel, Syria, or Lebanon border region. The movement of military personnel and checkpoints would probably further disrupt travel along primary and secondary road routes. Fighting could impact utilities, including power and water supply.
Consider avoiding nonessential travel near the Israel-Lebanon-Syria border until the situation stabilizes. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Reconfirm the status of transport services before departure. Review and update contingency plans.
Tensions along Israel's northern borders with Lebanon and Syria initially spiked soon after the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023, becoming further heightened following the alleged Israeli targeted killing of senior Hamas leader Saleh Al-Arouri in Beirut in early 2024. Hizballah launched a barrage of rockets targeting Israel in direct retaliation for Al-Arouri’s death, reportedly causing significant material damage to an Israeli base in Mount Meron. The Israeli government responded by targeting Wissam al-Tawil, who served as the deputy commander of a unit within the LH's elite al-Hajj Radwan Force, in a drone strike in the Lebanese village of Majdal Selm.
Despite the fact that both Israel and LH assert they are not interested in a broader conflict, the risk of further escalation is high, with hostilities potentially expanding in reaction to any attack launched from Syria or Lebanon that causes noteworthy casualties in Israel. Should escalation occur, military strikes could strike areas further inside the two opposing countries, striking military targets and civilian infrastructure.
Israel’s border area with Lebanon has been declared a closed military zone since mid-October 2023, with civilians being prohibited from approaching within 4 km (2.5 miles) of the border and residents living within 2 km (1.2 miles) of the border having been evacuated.
