12 Jun 2024 | 11:03 AM UTC
Madagascar: Increased security, protests likely nationwide through late-June following preliminary results /update 2
Security services to remain on high alert in Madagascar through late-June following preliminary results, legal challenges. Protests likely.
Increased security is likely nationwide through late-June following parliamentary elections. On June 11, the National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI) released preliminary results; the incumbent President Rajoelina's coalition ("All Together With Andry Rajoelina" - IRMAR) is leading in 80 of 163 constituencies. The lead opposition, "Firaisankina," would obtain 22 seats, with smaller parties and independent candidates leading in the remaining constituencies. Both opposition and ruling party candidates, as well as civil society observers, have lodged formal complaints to the HCC and the CENI over alleged electoral fraud. The CENI also announced it was not able to release results for Tsihombe following the torching of the electoral offices by frustrated voters on May 30. Police and armed forces have warned against any attempt at disrupting proceedings. It is unclear when the Constitutional High Court (HCC) will release the definitive results.
Post-election periods are typically tense in Madagascar, with allegations of voter fraud very common. Losing candidates are likely to reject the result, and their supporters to protest near party headquarters, governmental buildings, and polling stations. Security forces are prone to the use of force, especially during street protests in support of opposition candidates. Clashes between activists from rival political camps or between protesters and police are not uncommon. Labor and student organizations may also take advantage of the increased political focus to stage protests or strikes in support of their own agendas. In Antananarivo, hotspots include the Place du 13 Mai, the Avenue de l'Independance, Mahamasina stadium, HCC offices and the University of Ankatso campus.
Authorities will almost certainly maintain a higher security posture nationwide in the coming days, particularly along key thoroughfares and near government buildings, as a precaution. Security measures may include roadblocks, checkpoints, and searches of vehicles and pedestrians. Authorities could implement localized curfews, internet shutdowns, or entry and exit restrictions to deter violence or in the event of significant unrest. In the capital, authorities will likely restrict pedestrian access to prominent city squares and other public areas. Security will probably be tightest on the day the HCC certifies the results. Localized business and transport disruptions are likely.
Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent areas where large demonstrations are taking place. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Heed the instructions of local authorities. Refrain from publicly discussing politically sensitive topics; refrain from wearing orange clothing due to its association with the ruling party.
These were the country's third free legislative elections since a 2009 coup. The incoming National Assembly has 163 seats elected through a single-round constituency-based election—an increase from 151 to compensate for demographic growth. The outgoing parliament was dominated by the president's alliance. The IRMAR coalition faced similar opposition to that that contested the presidential elections in November 2023. Rajoelina secured re-election after six weeks of violent protests, which resulted in increased police presence, the closure of Antananarivo's main avenue, and overnight curfews.
The voting was held on May 29 in relative calm, although turnout was reportedly low. Independent observers noted incidents of violence, inconsistencies, and possible fraud. Opposition parties appear to have outperformed expectations, including in Anatanarivo’s constituencies.
