Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across much of the country through at least June 25 /update 3

Adverse weather is forecast across much of Mexico through at least June 25. A combination of meteorological factors, including low-pressure channels, a monsoon trough, and a low-pressure area with the potential for cyclonic development in the Gulf of Mexico, are expected to generate heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across many parts of the country over the coming days. Strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail are possible during storms.

Rainfall totals of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are forecast over parts of Veracruz State June 21-24, Puebla June 21-23, Oaxaca June 21, Tamaulipas June 22-24, and San Luis Potosi June 23. Totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are expected in parts of Campeche, Chiapas, Tabasco, and Yucatan June 21-23, Guerrero and San Luis Potosi June 21-22, Colima, Hidalgo, Jalisco, Michoacan, and Quintana Roo June 21, Oaxaca June 22-24, Colima, Jalisco, Michoacan, Nayarit, and Quintana Roo June 23-24, Hidalgo, Nuevo Leon, and Queretaro June 23, and Durango, Puebla, and Sinaloa June 24. Totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are forecast across much of the rest of the country over the coming days. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Strong winds may generate whirlwinds in northern regions, dust storms in arid parts of central and northern Mexico, and waterspouts in coastal areas.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Pacific coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.