New Caledonia: Fresh violence and continued disruptions reported as of June 24 amid nightly territorywide curfew /update 12

Fresh violence is prompting school closures and traffic disruptions in parts of New Caledonia as of June 24. Several acts of arson and vandalism targeting government buildings and emergency and rescue vehicles, as well as road blockades, occurred in Bourail, Dumbea, and Mont-Dore June 23; significant commercial disruptions and road clearance operations are ongoing as of June 24 in the worst-affected Dumbea area. Authorities continue to impose a nightly curfew throughout New Caledonia from 20:00 to 06:00 until at least July 1. Additional restrictions, such as a ban on unauthorized public gatherings, the sale of alcohol except by approved vendors, and the transportation of weapons, also remain in place. Renewed violence is likely if recently detained pro-independence activists are perceived to have received unfair treatment or unfavorable verdicts during trials in France.

Commercial and transport services continue to reopen gradually across the territory. Gas stations in the North Province, Dumbea, and Noumea have resumed limited operations. Limited schools across the territory have reopened, though closures at short notice remain possible. Commercial flights have restarted; the La Tontouta International Airport (NOU) is open for international services, and Noumea's Magenta Airport (GEA) is also open for domestic flights. However, Air New Zealand (NZ) has halted flights from Auckland Airport (AKL) to Noumea Magenta Airport until September 28; similar moves may limit flight availability until the situation normalizes. While the Taneo and Rai buses in Noumea remain canceled, several transport operators, including ferry services from Noumea to Lifou and Mare and bus services in Lifou, have resumed operations.

Over the coming weeks, heightened security measures and lingering disruptions will likely persist territorywide. Over 3,000 security personnel will remain deployed across the territory through at least mid-August to ensure order. Fresh escalations are especially possible if negotiations with pro-independence groups fail in the coming weeks. Potential gathering sites include military barracks, government buildings such as the Congress of New Caledonia and the High Commission of the Republic offices, public squares, and thoroughfares. The largest gatherings will probably continue to materialize in downtown Noumea. Well-attended gatherings have previously drawn tens of thousands of participants. Reports indicate the use of firearms by both protesters and security forces, sustaining the risk of further violent altercations. Security forces may use live ammunition/batons/tear gas/water cannons to disperse unruly crowds. In the event of widespread violence, officials may reimpose the state of emergency; under such orders, authorities have additional powers to close public spaces, conduct administrative searches, block websites deemed a security risk, and conduct residential subpoenas. Officials in Australia, the UK, and the US continue to advise their citizens to reconsider travel to all or part of the island; other countries may revise their travel advisories if significant violence persists.

Lingering disruptions, such as long queues for essential items, will likely persist in the coming days even as commercial operations resume. Precautionary business closures, especially in Noumea, are possible due to the threat of recurring violence and a potential increase in opportunistic crimes.