Russia: Adverse weather forecast across southern and central regions through at least June 23

Severe weather is forecast across parts of southern and central Russia through at least June 23. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast across the affected regions over the coming days. Strong winds, lightning, and possible hail may accompany storms. Heavy downpours may lead to flooding in low-lying areas and strong winds may cause property damage and power outages.

As of June 21, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following weather warnings across the affected area:

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Rostov Oblast, Republic of Kalmykia, Stavropol Kray, Zabaykalsky Kray, Omsk Oblast, Tyumen Oblast, Penza Oblast, Perm Kray, and Ulyanovsk Oblast.

• Orange rain-flood warnings: Novosibirsk Oblast and Tomsk Oblast.

• Orange thunderstorm/other hazard warning: Krasnodar Kray, Republic of Kalmykia, Rostov Oblast, Volgograd Oblast, Chechen Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, and Republic of Ingushetia, Zabaykalsky Kray, Omsk Oblast, Tyumen Oblast, Perm Kray, and Samara Oblast.

• Orange strong wind warnings: Republic of Kalmykia, Rostov Oblast, Zabaykalsky Kray, Omsk Oblast, Tyumen Oblast, Orenburg Oblast, Perm Kray, and Ulyanovsk Oblast.

• Yellow heavy rain warnings: Volgograd Oblast, Republic of Dagestan, Tomsk Oblast, Republic of Tatarstan, Samara Oblast, Saratov Oblast, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Komi Republic, Nenets Autonomous District, and Tambov Oblast.

• Yellow rain-flood warnings: Republic of Karelia.

• Yellow thunderstorm/other hazard warnings: Republic of Dagestan, Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, Stavropol Kray, Republic of Buryatia, Irkutsk Oblast, Kemerovo Oblast, Novosibirsk Oblast, Tomsk Oblast, Altai Kray, central Krasnoyarsk Kray, Chelyabinsk Oblast, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous District, southern Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, Kurgan Oblast, Sverdlovsk Oblast, Orenburg Oblast, Penza Oblast, Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of Tatarstan, Saratov Oblast, Ulyanovsk Oblast, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Komi Republic, Vologda Oblast, Ivanovo Oblast, Kostroma Oblast, and Tambov Oblast.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Krasnodar Kray, Volgograd Oblast, Chechen Republic, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Republic of Dagestan, Republic of Ingushetia, northern Krasnoyarsk Kray, Chelyabinsk Oblast, Sverdlovsk Oblast, Penza Oblast, Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of Tatarstan, Saratov Oblast, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Komi Republic, Nenets Autonomous District, Vologda Oblast, Ivanovo Oblast, Kostroma Oblast, and Tambov Oblast.

• Yellow dust storm warning: Republic of Kalmykia.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.