03 Jun 2024 | 09:51 AM UTC
South Africa: Increased security likely nationwide through mid-June following election results /update 6
Heightened security likely through mid-June in South Africa due to threat of political violence; highest threat in KwaZulu-Natal.
Increased security remains likely nationwide through mid-June following South Africa's general election results. Citizens voted May 29 amid increased tensions due to the high uncertainty around the outcome. The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) announced on June 2 that the African National Congress (ANC) had won the national election but lost its absolute majority. The ANC is likely engaged in negotiations with the Democratic Alliance (DA), uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) to form a majority before Parliament's opening. The Assembly's first sitting will be held on June 16 at the latest. MK has rejected the results and has announced they would appeal for a recount.
While elections in South Africa are usually peaceful, the current cycle has seen increased political tensions, especially surrounding former President Jacob Zuma's MK. There are serious concerns that his supporters could seek to disrupt political proceedings and instigate acts of civil unrest - including road blockages, violence, and riots. Protest locations are likely to be primarily concentrated in KwaZulu-Natal Province, though incidents in Gauteng or Mpumalanga Province cannot be ruled out.
Increased security is likely nationwide, particularly in areas with a higher threat of politically motivated protests and violence. Security measures could include increased patrolling, police checkpoints, and road closures. The high potential of violence peripheral to protests is of serious concern to travelers. Any events will likely generate transport and business disruptions and could escalate into broader acts of rioting should security services not prove able to contain crowds. Clashes between security forces, opposing rival activists, striking union members, or other forms of political violence are likely.
Avoid all gatherings due to the likelihood of violence. Exercise caution near demonstration sites. If violence erupts, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent violence-affected areas. Monitor local media for details concerning political gatherings, as organizers may not announce plans in advance. Refrain from wearing ostensibly bright colors - blue, green, yellow, red - if traveling near a protest location. Follow instructions issued by local authorities. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Review contingency plans if operating in higher-threat locations. Heed the instructions of security personnel.
These were South Africa's seventh elections since the end of minority rule in 1994. Election day proceeded peacefully with only minor disruptions and no violence; long queues were reported. The 58.6 percent turnout was the current regime's lowest in history. The ANC received 40.2 percent, followed by the DA with 21.8, MK with 14.6, the EFF with 9.5 and IFP with 3.9. Thirteen other parties will be represented in Parliament. MK is the only party that has so far rejected the results.
Since no party has received an absolute majority at the National Assembly, a coalition or minority government will be the most likely outcome following negotiations. The ANC could partner with either the DA, MK or the EFF and another party. The ANC has announced that outgoing President Cyril Ramaphosa will remain its leader and is the likely favorite to be re-elected President once Parliament resumes. At a provincial level, Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, and the Northern Cape will all also require coalition or minority governments.
MK has rejected the results because it expected to receive a higher number of MPs. The nationalist party campaigned on a platform largely aimed at changing the Constitution to rehabilitate Jacob Zuma. He had been barred from contesting the elections due to past convictions. Zuma remains a highly influential personality in his native KwaZulu-Natal province; observers mostly point to his imprisonment in 2021 as the starting point of a week-long riot in KwaZulu-Natal and Durban, which claimed over 350 lives.
