Tajikistan: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least June 14

Severe weather is forecast across much of Tajikistan through at least June 14. The Tajikistan Agency of Hydrometeorology and Monitoring of the Environment has issued an alert warning of the risk of flooding and landslides in various mountainous parts of the country and across Sughd Region June 13-14. The Committee for Emergency Situations has advised residents to keep away from at-risk low-lying and mountainous areas over the coming days. Heavy rainfall during May resulted in flooding and mudflows that caused dozens of casualties and widespread damage and disruptions across many parts of Tajikistan. Hundreds of people have been affected by mudflows in Varzob District in recent days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation. Floodwaters and debris flows may render bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, resulting in overland travel disruptions in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region.

Localized business disruptions are likely in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and employees' inability to reach work sites. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are also possible where significant flooding impacts utility networks. Residual disruptions are likely once flooding has subsided as authorities work to clear debris and any flood damage.