04 Jun 2024 | 11:10 AM UTC
Ukraine: Combat ongoing near Russian border in Kharkiv Region; authorities implement partial power shutdowns through early June /update 254
Combat ongoing near Russian border in Kharkiv Region, authorities implement partial power shutdowns through early June.
Combat is ongoing in eastern and southern Ukraine as of early June. Russian forces have reportedly advanced near Lyptsi, a settlement north of Kharkiv, as positional combat is mostly ongoing in the surrounding areas. Ukrainian forces launched limited counteroffensive operations, recapturing a part of the city center of Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv). The town likely has a significant strategic value for Ukrainian defenses in the region. Elsewhere, combat has intensified near Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk Region and west of Donetsk city. Additionally, positional combat continues near Avdiivka and Urozhaine in the Donetsk Region, in Robotyne in the Zaporizhizhia Region, and near Krynky in the Kherson Region. Outside of the new front, Russia has increased its forces' presence near Sumy Region, which borders the Russian Federation. Artillery and missile strikes continue to target locations throughout Ukraine daily, often resulting in civilian casualties.
In Luhansk and Donetsk Region, Russian forces have intensified attacks from their positions between Svatove and Kreminna, as well as in the direction of Chasiv Yar, conducting mechanized assaults in the area in recent days and marking some advances. Combat will likely continue on this axis, and possibly intensify in the coming days as Russia maintains increased assaults on surrounding settlements. Positional combat is ongoing to the west of Donetsk city, as of early June; limited Russian advances are reported west of Avdiivka and Krasnohorivka.
Russia’s airstrikes continue to cause casualties and damage, targeting the Ukrainian energy network. The strikes prompted Ukraine’s energy provider, Ukrenergo, to implement occasional planned and unplanned power outages nationwide for industrial and domestic consumers through at least early June. In case of power disruptions, authorities indicate that critical infrastructure will not be affected. Further major Russian airstrikes could cause additional damage to Ukraine's energy network, prompting occasional unplanned outages.
Airstrikes on civilian settlements continue to occur as of early June; at least six people were injured following a strike on Dnipro overnight June 3-4. On June 2, a missile strike hit Odesa. Explosions continue to be reported in Kharkiv, likely due to Russian aerial strikes and Ukrainian air defense. Russian forces have likely increased airstrike rates ahead of deliveries of further Western air defense systems to Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces continue to conduct long-range strikes against Russian military and industrial facilities within occupied territory. A major strike was reported on June 3, targeting Russian air defense systems in Russia's Belgorod Oblast. Further strikes occurred on May 18-19, targeting fuel depots and military sites in Crimea, and on May 31, targeting an oil depot in Krasnodar Oblast.
Ukrainian missile and drone strikes have also continued to target Russia's Black Sea Fleet, damaging two ferries reportedly used for rail and road transportation on May 29-30. One of the damaged ferries has likely run aground, causing delays in the Kerch port area. A previous strike occurred on May 19, which reportedly resulted in the damage and sinking of two vessels, a mine sweeper, Project 266-M Kovrovets, and the corvette, Tsyklon.
Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the Air Alert mobile application to receive an air-alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. Be aware of possible booby traps in areas previously occupied by Russian forces. Regularly charge laptops, tablets, mobile phones, and other business or travel-critical appliances. Unplug electronic equipment that is not connected to surge protectors. Exercise caution when driving in areas affected by power outages. Verify that security systems are operational, including after power is restored.
Russian advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast present the most significant changes to the front lines since the Russian seizure of Avdiivka. Northern Kharkiv had not seen any significant fighting since late 2022 when Russian forces in the Kharkiv Region collapsed and withdrew from the area; however, the Russian military likely sees a window of opportunity to increase operational pressure on Ukraine before delayed US military aid reaches the front lines. Beyond this, Russian strategic objectives in the area remain unclear; however, continued advances will likely stretch Ukrainian logistics, forcing Ukraine to reallocate forces from other fronts to repel Russia's incursion and establish a buffer zone, undermining Ukraine's ability to strike into the Russian Federation.
Should Russian forces capture Vovchansk, Ukrainian logistical support to Kupyansk would be weakened, easing potential Russian advances on this settlement. Additionally, advances beyond Lyptsi would bring Kharkiv city within range of Russian artillery, allowing Russian forces to resume regular artillery bombardment of the urban area.
In the wake of Russian incursions into the northern Kharkiv Region, Ukraine will almost certainly continue to commit to an active defense strategy through mid-2024, conducting long-range strikes on Russian oil and gas assets, Black Sea Fleet facilities, and oblasts bordering Ukraine with greater frequency, as well as targeting logistical nodes, command posts, and ammunition depots.
Further retreats by Kyiv's military personnel in the regions of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia are possible through 2024; however, the arrival of Western military aid in the coming weeks should help to temper such losses in the medium term. Russian combat activity could increase, particularly near Kupyansk in the Kharkiv Region, Kreminna in the Luhansk Region, and Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia Region. Ukraine's Western allies continue campaigning for further support for Kyiv; however, the coming elections in the EU and US are likely to negatively affect Western governments' capabilities to deliver military aid and support in the measures needed for Ukraine to withstand further major Russian offensives.
Russian forces will likely continue to launch intense airstrikes targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, as well as military and civilian objectives, through mid-2024. Although recent strikes have resulted in rolling blackouts, continued strikes will likely have a limited impact on Ukraine's ability to conduct its defense. Nonetheless, further strikes are highly likely.
