31 Jul 2024 | 06:49 PM UTC
Ethiopia: Security situation likely to remain volatile in Amhara Region through at least late August /update 13
Volatile security situation likely to persist in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, through at least late August amid ongoing military operations.
The security situation in Amhara Region will likely remain volatile through at least late August amid ongoing hostilities between troops of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and local militias known as FANO. Federal forces are undertaking military operations to integrate FANO into the government's security structures. Amhara activists oppose the move and view it as a way to reduce autonomy and leave the region vulnerable to attack. This decision has sharply increased tensions between the federal government and FANO. Armed clashes are occurring in various parts of the Amhara Region, including in North Shewa, North and South Wello, East and West Gojam, North, Central, South, and West Gondar zones. The ENDF has also reportedly conducted air strikes in unspecified locations.
The federal government will likely maintain a heavy army presence, including deploying armored vehicles across Amhara, particularly in major cities such as Bahir Dar, Gondar, Dessie, Mota, and Kombolcha. Further fighting between the federal government forces and FANO is likely if the militia group refuses to surrender its weapons to authorities. The army could impose curfews, patrols, and checkpoints in affected areas, leading to ground transport disruptions. Intermittent internet disruptions are also possible in the coming weeks. Protests in response to developments are possible.
Liaise with trusted local contacts before traveling to or within the Amhara Region. Reconfirm all transport services before departure. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Heed the instructions of the security forces. Travel with personal identification documents to facilitate transit through checkpoints. Avoid concentrations of security personnel and travel at night. Plan for possible short-term telecommunication disruptions.
The federal government's move came despite strong criticism, especially from ethnic-Amhara activists and the National Movement of the Amhara (NaMA) party members. Critics allege that the government is seeking to disarm FANO so that the neighboring Tigray Region can regain control of disputed territories, the Wolkait area in western Tigray and the Raya area in southern Tigray. Amhara forces took control of Wolkait and Raya in November 2020 following the military confrontation between federal troops and Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebels. FANO fought alongside the national forces against TPLF rebels from 2020-2022.
Fighting between the federal government and TPLF rebels ended on Nov. 2 after a peace agreement was signed in Pretoria, South Africa. Several steps have been taken to implement the peace deal, including forming an Interim Regional Administration (IRA) and removing the TPLF from the designated terrorist list. Despite positive trends, key issues remain, including the withdrawal of non-government forces (Eritrean troops and Amhara militias) from Tigray territory.
