Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Beryl tracking northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico early July 7 /update 14

Tropical Storm Beryl is tracking northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico early July 7. As of 04:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 395 km (245 miles) southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas, US.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks northwestward then north-northwestward over the Gulf of Mexico July 7 before making landfall over Texas between Corpus Christi Bay and Galveston Bay early July 8. After making landfall, the system is forecast to weaken rapidly into a tropical storm and then tropical depression as it tracks north-northeastward then northeastward across southern and eastern Texas July 8-early July 9. The system is expected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone and the remnant low is forecast to track northeastward across Arkansas, southeastern Missouri, southern and eastern Illinois, northwestern Indiana, and into southern Michigan July 9-11. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

As of early July 4, authorities had issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: The Texas coast from Baffin Bay northward to San Luis Pass.

• Hurricane Watch: The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio

  Grande River and the Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to Galveston Island.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The Texas coast south of Baffin Bay to the mouth of the Rio

  Grande River, the Texas coast north of San Luis Pass to High Island, and the northeastern coast of mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande River.

• Tropical Storm Watch: The Texas coast east of High Island to Sabine Pass.

• Storm Surge Warning: North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore to High Island, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

• Storm Surge Watch: The Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande River northward

  to North Entrance of the Padre Island National Seashore and San Luis Pass to Sabine Pass, including Galveston Bay.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), hurricane conditions are likely in the hurricane warning area and are possible in the watch area by early July 8. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the hurricane warning and watch areas and the tropical storm warning areas in Texas and northeastern Mexico and are possible in the tropical storm watch area by late July 7. Beryl will likely produce rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches), with localized amounts of 38 cm (15 inches), across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas late July 7-10. The rainfall will likely produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as possible minor to isolated moderate river flooding. A few tornadoes could occur along the Texas Coast late July 7-early July 8.

Storm surge could raise water levels by 1.2-1.8 meters (4-6 feet) in areas of onshore winds from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass and Matagorda Bay in Texas and by 0.9-1.5 meters (3-5 feet) from San Luis Pass to High Island, North Entrance Padre Island National Seashore to Mesquite Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, and Galveston Bay. Smaller storm surge is likely across most of the rest of the Texas coast to Cameron, Louisana. Large swells generated by Beryl are likely to affect eastern Mexico and much of the US Gulf Coast over the coming days. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Authorities will likely issue warnings and advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be susceptible to rain-induced hazards. Localized evacuations are possible if weather conditions prove particularly hazardous.

Authorities in Texas have issued severe weather disaster declarations for 121 counties in advance of the storm. Corpus Christi declared a local state of disaster. Refugio County has issued a mandatory evacuation for all residents; after landfall, the county plans to shut down its water supply, and hospitals will redirect patients elsewhere. Buses to emergency shelter locations outside of the county are provided for anyone unable to evacuate. Voluntary evacuations are in place for low-lying, flood-prone, and vulnerable areas of Aransas, Brazoria, Calhoun, Cameron, Jackson, Kenedy, Kleberg, Matagorda, Nueces, and San Patricio counties. Nueces County has ordered the mandatory evacuation of visitors in the Port Aransas area by noon July 7, while the Village of Surfside Beach has issued a mandatory evacuation for all recreational vehicles and watercraft. Port authorities have restricted all vessel movement and cargo operations from the Colorado Locks to the US-Mexico border. Flight disruptions are likely at airports in the region during the passing of the storm. Additionally, some multinational oil and gas companies have shut down production in parts of the Gulf of Mexico as a precaution.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable.

Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.