31 Jul 2024 | 10:27 AM UTC
Israel, PT: Cross-border violence to continue in Gaza Strip through at least late August /update 36
Cross-border violence to persist through at least late August in the Gaza Strip. Civil unrest likely to persist in the West Bank.
Fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian militants will almost certainly continue in the Gaza Strip through at least late August. Cross-border violence will also likely continue for the duration of the fighting. Neighboring and regional countries are continuing their efforts to bring about another ceasefire to release additional hostages that Hamas holds in the Gaza Strip and halt fighting in the territory. Recent high-profile assassinations, particularly of Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh, are likely to disrupt and even temporarily postpone peace negotiations. Meanwhile, Israeli authorities continue their military operations in the Gaza Strip.
Since the initial Hamas attack against Israel on Oct. 7, Gaza-based militants have fired thousands of rockets, missiles, and mortars toward cities in the center and south of the country, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. However, the projectile attacks stemming from Gaza have significantly declined since Israel's ground operation into the enclave began in late October.
Gaza and the West Bank
As part of its Operation Swords of Iron, the IDF has launched major retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza. The operation has killed over 39,000 people and wounded thousands of others in the territory. Major disruptions to internet service and other telecommunications have also been reported. The Israeli government has issued instructions to Palestinians as to which area to evacuate to in Gaza as it pursues its objective of eliminating Hamas and its key leaders.
Additionally, violence has surged between Palestinians and Israeli forces and settlers in the West Bank, with Palestinian authorities claiming that more than 500 Palestinians have been killed in the territory since the Oct. 7 assault. Palestinian groups have also staged general strikes to show support for residents of Gaza. Further incidents of civil unrest and clashes are likely throughout the West Bank.
Political Response
Netanyahu has declared Israel to be at war, and Israeli military officials also assert that the country is prepared to defend against military action by Hizballah militants in Lebanon. Authorities have declared a state of national civil emergency across Israel; the move enables law enforcement officers to exercise additional authority. Netanyahu and opposition leaders have formed an emergency government and established a war cabinet.
International diplomatic efforts continue in an attempt to secure a long-term cessation of hostilities in Gaza.
Travel Disruptions
The conflict has caused significant flight disruptions in Israel, with the Israel Airports Authority temporarily closing multiple airports in central and southern areas of the country. While Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) remains open as of July 31, several airlines have canceled flights to and from the facility. Nevertheless, Israeli flag carrier EL AL Israel Airlines (LY) is still operating flights serving TLV, albeit on modified schedules. Flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, are likely at TLV and other airports in Israel until the situation stabilizes. Moreover, officials may suspend all flight operations at TLV on short notice in response to conflict developments. The Civil Aviation Authority has also banned sports and leisure flights from Israeli airspace until further notice.
The IDF has closed roads near the border with Gaza. Authorities plan to reopen Zikim beach on the Gaza border from Aug. 1. Crossings between the West Bank and Israel are either closed or under surveillance. For further information on border crossing status, click here.
Tactical Analysis
Heightened security measures and disruptions to transport and business will almost certainly continue across Israel over at least the short term. Tight security is likely at all Israeli ports of entry. The status of border crossings, airports, seaports, roads, and rail services may change in response to conflict developments.
Anti-Israel militants may stage opportunistic attacks, such as stabbings, vehicle rammings, and drive-by shootings, from within the West Bank, southern Lebanon, and/or Israeli cities and towns. Conflict-related demonstrations have been occurring in Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and additional rallies are likely in both locations. Prominent protest sites include outside the Israeli Prime Minister's residence, the Knesset, and other government buildings and historical landmarks. Clashes between demonstrators and security forces are possible at any demonstrations that materialize.
Reconsider nonessential travel to Israel and the Palestinian Territories until the situation stabilizes. Reconfirm flights and the status of roads and border crossings. Arrive early at airports to allow additional time for processing. Monitor local media and abide by security forces' directives. If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement. Maintain contact with diplomatic missions. Avoid all demonstrations and concentrations of security personnel.
Hamas, the Gaza-based militant group, launched a surprise land, sea, and air assault against Israel early Oct. 7, infiltrating numerous locations in the south of the country. Dubbed Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, it was the largest and most coordinated attack against Israel in years. The attack coincided with the Jewish religious holiday Simchat Torah and came one day after the 50th anniversary of the start of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The IDF engaged Hamas in ground-based fighting in southern Israel for days after the militants' initial assault before regaining control of all Israeli communities along the Israel-Gaza border.
