Myanmar: Clashes continue in multiple areas despite temporary ceasefire in northern Shan State through late July /update 10

Clashes continue in multiple areas despite the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) unilateral ceasefire agreements in northern Shan State through July 31. Regime troops reportedly continue to conduct operations across the state, contributing to intense clashes in several townships, including Hsipaw, Kyaukme, Lashio, Mongmit, and Nawnghkio, where food shortages, heavy civilian casualties, and telecommunication outages persist. Across Rakhine State, banking services, including cash dispensing machines, have halted in at least seven townships due to transport restrictions that prevent cash flow into the state. In Mandalay Region, the military has tightened security at entrances to Mandalay City, including along the Mandalay-Pyin Oo Lwin road in Patheingyi Township, following heightened clashes, most notably in Madaya Township, approximately 30 km (20 miles) north of Mandalay City. Authorities have also reportedly shut down telecommunication and internet services in Mongok Town, Mandalay, as of 08:30 July 19 amid intense clashes between the TNLA and military forces in the eastern section of the town. Elsewhere, intense clashes persist in northern regions, such as Bago, Chin, Kayah, Kachin, Kayin, and Mon states, upper Sagaing and Magway regions, and near border checkpoints with China, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh. Multiple countries continue to advise against all or nonessential travel to Myanmar or affected regions like the northern areas of Mandalay Region and Shan State.

The latest series of attacks comes after the military has lost approximately half of its 5,280 military bases, headquarters, and outposts since coordinated attacks by a coalition of anti-regime militant groups Oct. 27. Bomb and drone attacks primarily targeted military installations, military-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways. Attacks on structures and buildings with foreign ties, such as the Korean-backed BXT port, could also occur, though militants do not specifically target them. The military often responds to attacks by militant groups with artillery and airstrikes to target the groups' members or villages thought to shelter the fighters. The conflict has displaced over 3 million people, killed at least 5,161 civilians, and seen the detention of more than 20,500 individuals perceived to be anti-regime since Oct. 27. Related air strikes have also caused casualties, including in border regions of Bangladesh and China.

Anti-regime groups have staged bombings and assassinations of junta members or people considered to support the Tatmadaw; they have also sabotaged military and other government facilities in various urban areas, including Bago, Mandalay, and Yangon. Additionally, some activists have targeted individuals, organizations, and facilities owned by foreign nationals from China and other countries that allegedly support the Tatmadaw. While some explosions have caused collateral damage and civilian casualties, most attacks in urban centers are small-scale and inflict limited injuries and property damage. Authorities will likely impose heightened security measures at incident sites, resulting in localized disruptions.

Increased security
Tight security continues within and at entry points of major cities, including Yangon. Curfews remain in Sittwe, Rakhine State, and multiple northern areas of Shan State; a night curfew is active in industrial zones, including those in Hlaingthayar and Shwe Pyi Thar townships, as well as parts of Yangon. Martial law is in place across at least 55 townships, including within Chin, Mon, and Karen states; such movement restrictions and closures of nonessential businesses are likely in other regions if clashes continue.

Transport and shipping disruptions
Ground transport disruptions are occurring between:

• Townships within Shan and Mon States

• Lashio and Mandalay

• Yangon and Sittwe

• Chin State and Sagaing Region

• Chin State and Magwe Region

• Mandalay-Moegoke and Mandalay-Myitkyina routes 19:00-06:00 daily since June 25 due to armed groups' warnings

Additionally, all ground and river transport connecting Rakhine State is blocked, with multiple access routes to Lashio, such as bridges and highways, facing disruptions in the past weeks. Ground transport and shipping disruptions are affecting trade with China, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand. Border gates to China in Mongla, eastern Shan State, reportedly remain open. Cargo flights between Yangon International Airport (YIA) and Kunming in China are available. Airports that have recently experienced intermittent violence-related closures include Kalaymyo Airport (KMV), Lashio Airport (LSH), and Thandwe Airport (SNW). Mandalay (MDL) and Naypyidaw (NYT) international airports could also experience delays due to increased traffic from military aircraft. Anti-regime groups could target airports, potentially causing flight service suspensions.

Utility disruptions
Conflict-hit areas of northern Shan State, northern Rakhine State, and Sagaing Region have been most affected by utility and telecommunication outages; Sagaing Region and Rakhine State are reportedly facing severe fuel shortages. Security restrictions, infrastructure damage, and supply issues may cause similar disruptions at short notice in other impacted areas, including Yangon and Myanmar. Electricity disruptions can result in the temporary unavailability of essential services, such as ATMs, petrol stations, and internet and mobile data, as well as severe commercial and transport disruptions.

Internet disruptions
The junta has imposed fresh internet restrictions since May 31, notably banning the use of Virtual Private Networks (VPN), which are mainly used to access banned social media and messaging platforms. Officials are also reportedly conducting random checks of personal devices to check for the presence and use of prohibited applications. Some local businesses have experienced disruptions due to reduced online traffic and access. Limited VPN services and messaging platforms such as Telegram remain accessible.

Civil unrest
There is an extant risk of anti-junta demonstrations, such as marches and roadblocks nationwide, mainly over mandatory military conscription and any fresh security curbs. Popular gathering spots include government buildings, monuments, and public squares. Protest activity often spikes over holidays and other significant dates, such as scheduled court hearings involving cases against National League for Democracy (NLD) leaders. Internet service restrictions have repeatedly delayed the reporting of related rallies, though the scale and frequency of protests in major urban centers like Yangon have significantly declined in recent months due to tight security. Military and police personnel may use water cannons, tear gas, rubber bullets, and/or live ammunition to disperse protesters; reports indicate regime forces have also previously arrested non-violent demonstrators since February 2021.