New Caledonia: Increased security measures to remain territorywide through Aug. 5 amid continued disruptions and risk of violence /update 16

Authorities in New Caledonia will maintain an ongoing territorywide 22:00-05:00 curfew through at least Aug. 5. Additional restrictions, such as a ban on unauthorized public gatherings, the sale of alcohol, and the transportation of weapons, will also remain in effect until further notice; further extensions of these measures are very likely. Pro-independence rallies from groups such as the Cellule de Coordination des Actions de Terrain (CCAT) group remain probable in the coming weeks, mainly in Noumea and parts of North Province; counterprotests are also possible.

Sporadic violence continues, with occasional disruptive rallies, prolonged road blockades, as well as acts of arson and vandalism targeting government buildings, retail outlets, and emergency vehicles. Worst affected areas include the outer areas of Greater Noumea, Bourail, Dumbea, and Mont-Dore. Fresh escalations are likely over any protester deaths due to police action, as well as perceptions of unfair treatment or unfavorable verdicts affecting detained pro-independence activists in France.

Emergency services at the Paula-Thavoavianon Hospital in Koumac and Raymond-Doui-Nebayes Hospital in Poindimié will be severely limited from Aug. 1 due to the limited availability of doctors. Both hospitals will experience shutdowns of their emergency rooms 18:00-07:00, with the rooms at Raymond-Doui-Nébayes Hospital closed during the weekend. All hospitalizations and emergencies at the Chepenehe Medical Center in Lifou will be redirected to the We Medical Center from Aug. 3

Commercial and transport services continue to reopen gradually across the territory. Gas stations in the North Province, Dumbea, and Noumea have resumed limited operations. Limited schools across the territory have reopened, though closures at short notice remain possible. Commercial flights have restarted; the La Tontouta International Airport (NOU) is open for international services, and Noumea Magenta Airport (GEA) is also open for domestic flights. However, Air New Zealand (NZ) has halted flights from Auckland Airport (AKL) to Noumea Magenta Airport until Dec. 14, while Air Calin (SB) has limited international services through September; similar moves may limit flight availability until the situation normalizes. While the Taneo and Rai buses in Noumea remain canceled, several transport operators, including ferry services from Noumea to Lifou and Mare and bus services in Lifou, have resumed operations.

Over the coming weeks, heightened security measures and lingering disruptions will likely persist territorywide. Over 3,000 security personnel will remain deployed across the territory through at least mid-August to ensure order. Potential gathering sites for additional protests include military barracks, government buildings such as the Congress of New Caledonia and the High Commission of the Republic offices, public squares, and thoroughfares. The largest gatherings will probably continue to materialize in downtown Noumea. Well-attended gatherings have previously drawn tens of thousands of participants. Reports indicate the use of firearms by both protesters and security forces, sustaining the risk of further violent altercations. Security forces may use live ammunition/batons/tear gas/water cannons to disperse unruly crowds. In the event of widespread violence, officials may reimpose the state of emergency; under such orders, authorities have additional powers to close public spaces, conduct administrative searches, block websites deemed a security risk, and conduct residential subpoenas. Officials in Australia, the UK, and the US continue to advise their citizens to reconsider travel to all or part of the territory; other countries may revise their travel advisories if significant violence persists.

Lingering disruptions, such as long queues for essential items, will likely persist in the coming days even as commercial operations resume. Precautionary business closures, especially in Noumea, are possible due to the threat of recurring violence and a potential increase in opportunistic crimes.