New Caledonia: Modified nightly curfew extended territorywide through Aug. 5 amid continued disruptions and risk of violence /update 15

Authorities in New Caledonia have extended an ongoing territorywide nightly curfew through at least Aug. 5. Shortened curfew hours of 22:00-05:00 instead of 21:00-05:00 will apply effective July 29. Additional restrictions, such as a ban on unauthorized public gatherings, the sale of alcohol, and the transportation of weapons, will also remain in effect until further notice; further extensions of these measures are very likely. The pro-independence Cellule de Coordination des Actions de Terrain (CCAT) group's general assembly will occur July 27-28 in Pondimie's Bayes District. Other pro-independence rallies remain probable in the coming weeks, mainly in Noumea and parts of the North Province; counterprotests are also possible.

Sporadic violence continues, with occasional disruptive rallies, prolonged road blockades, as well as acts of arson and vandalism targeting government buildings, retail outlets, and emergency vehicles. Worst affected areas include the outer areas of Greater Noumea, Bourail, Dumbea, and Mont-Dore. Fresh escalations are likely over any protester's death due to police action, as well as perceptions of unfair treatment or unfavorable verdicts affecting detained pro-independence activists in France.

Commercial and transport services continue to reopen gradually across the territory. Gas stations in the North Province, Dumbea, and Noumea have resumed limited operations. Limited schools across the territory have reopened, though closures at short notice remain possible. Commercial flights have restarted; the La Tontouta International Airport (NOU) is open for international services, and Noumea Magenta Airport (GEA) is also open for domestic flights. However, Air New Zealand (NZ) has halted flights from Auckland Airport (AKL) to Noumea Magenta Airport until Dec. 14, while Air Calin (SB) has limited international services through September; similar moves may limit flight availability until the situation normalizes. While the Taneo and Rai buses in Noumea remain canceled, several transport operators, including ferry services from Noumea to Lifou and Mare and bus services in Lifou, have resumed operations.

Over the coming weeks, heightened security measures and lingering disruptions will likely persist territorywide. Over 3,000 security personnel will remain deployed across the territory through at least mid-August to ensure order. Potential gathering sites for additional protests include military barracks, government buildings such as the Congress of New Caledonia and the High Commission of the Republic offices, public squares, and thoroughfares. The largest gatherings will probably continue to materialize in downtown Noumea. Well-attended gatherings have previously drawn tens of thousands of participants. Reports indicate the use of firearms by both protesters and security forces, sustaining the risk of further violent altercations. Security forces may use live ammunition/batons/tear gas/water cannons to disperse unruly crowds. In the event of widespread violence, officials may reimpose the state of emergency; under such orders, authorities have additional powers to close public spaces, conduct administrative searches, block websites deemed a security risk, and conduct residential subpoenas. Officials in Australia, the UK, and the US continue to advise their citizens to reconsider travel to all or part of the island; other countries may revise their travel advisories if significant violence persists.

Lingering disruptions, such as long queues for essential items, will likely persist in the coming days even as commercial operations resume. Precautionary business closures, especially in Noumea, are possible due to the threat of recurring violence and a potential increase in opportunistic crimes.