Philippines: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to deliver State of the Nation Address in Metro Manila July 22

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (known as Bongbong) will deliver his third State of the Nation Address (SONA) at the Batasang Pambansa (National Assembly) Complex in Quezon City, Metro Manila, July 22. Over 2,000 guests, including members of the House of Representatives, the Senate, and foreign diplomats, will attend the event.

Heightened security and transport disruptions are certain around the Complex. The Philippine National Police will deploy at least 22,000 security personnel, including 5,000 around the Batasang Pambansa Complex, to ensure order and prevent demonstrators from gathering in the "no rally zones," which include the Complex. A nationwide gun ban will also take effect on July 22. While officials have not identified any specific security threat for the event, police will almost certainly establish security cordons near the Complex; street closures, roadblocks, and traffic diversions are likely, particularly along Commonwealth Avenue and Batasan Road, which lead to the Complex. Officials will also deploy 1,329 personnel to mitigate traffic disruptions and provide free transport to commuters affected by road closures.

Activists from several groups, including transport unions such as MANIBELA and Indigenous and human rights groups including BAYAN and KATRIBU, plan to demonstrate along Commonwealth Avenue from 14:00 to denounce the perceived failures of the Marcos Jr. Administration. Additional unannounced solidarity protests will likely occur at government offices, major thoroughfares, and public squares across Metro Manila and other parts of the country, such as Cebu and Davao cities, in the days leading to SONA and during the event. Organizers plan to burn effigies of the president, which police have deemed illegal. The largest rallies will likely occur in Metro Manila, where organizers claim at least ten thousand participants will join the gatherings. While authorities announced the designation of specific locations as demonstration sites, activists will probably also gather elsewhere within Metro Manila, such as the Commission on Human Rights, Bantayog ng mga Bayani Monument, Malacanang Palace, People Power Monument, and the US Embassy. Marcos Jr.'s supporters may organize counterdemonstrations.

Authorities will bolster security around protest sites, and localized transport and business disruptions will likely occur during gatherings, especially if demonstrators block roads near rally locations. Isolated clashes are possible if police attempt to forcibly disperse gatherings or if activists attempt to breach security cordons. Arrests may occur if demonstrators violate public gathering permit requirements.