27 Sep 2024 | 11:15 AM UTC
Philippine Sea: Tropical Depression 20 forms and is tracking south-southwestward in the Philippine Sea Sept. 27
TD 20 tracking south-southwestward in the Philippine Sea Sept. 27. Close approach to the northeastern Philippines Sept. 29.
Tropical Depression 20 (named Julian in the Philippines) has formed and is tracking south-southwestward over the Philippine Sea Sept. 27. As of 14:00 PHST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 706 km (439 miles) south-southwest of Kadena Airbase, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen into a tropical storm as it tracks southwestward and then west-southwestward over the Philippine Sea Sept. 27-28, before strengthening into a typhoon as it turns to track northwestward and then north-northwestward Sept. 29, passing close to the far northeastern Philippines. The system is then forecast to strengthen further as it tracks north-northwestward away from the Philippines Sept. 30-Oct. 1, before weakening slightly as it tracks northward and passes between Taiwan and Japan's Yaeyama Islands Oct. 2. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of Sept. 27, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued a weather bulletin advising that the system will bring strong winds to northeastern regions and rough seas to coastal waters. A Tropical Cyclone Warning Signal (TCWS) 1 (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) is in place for the Babuyan Islands and the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan Province. Officials will likely update and extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days as the system progresses.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
