US: Adverse weather forecast across northern and central regions through at least early July 17

Severe weather is forecast across parts of the northern and central US through at least early July 17. Several bands of severe storms are expected to move eastward from the northern and central plains across the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes and into the Northeast over the coming days. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, lightning, hail, and possible tornadoes may accompany storms. Heavy downpours may trigger flooding in low-lying areas, and strong winds may cause property damage and power outages.

As of early July 15, the US National Weather Service (NWS) has issued severe thunderstorm warnings for parts of central North Dakota and severe thunderstorm watches across parts of central, southeastern, and southern North Dakota, northeastern South Dakota, eastern Illinois, northern and western Indiana, and southern Michigan. Flood warnings and advisories are in place for several river catchments across the affected area. Authorities will likely issue new alerts as weather conditions change over the coming days.

The NWS's Storm Prediction Center has warned of a slight risk of severe thunderstorms (the second lowest level on a five-tier scale) over parts of the northern plains and the Midwest early July 15. There is an enhanced risk of severe storms over parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northwestern Indiana July 15-16, as well as a slight risk across parts of the central plains, much of the Midwest, and parts of northern Pennsylvania and central and western New York. There is a further slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the central plains and from the upper Ohio Valley into Upstate New York July 16-17.

The NWS's Weather Prediction Center has warned of a slight risk of excessive rainfall (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) for parts of the Upper Midwest July 15-16 and from Missouri east-northeastward to Ohio July 16-17.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the region. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities will probably temporarily close low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may cause flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions will probably occur in flood- or tornado-hit areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.